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藍光嘉寶服務(02606.HK):外拓再傳捷報,完成全年目標六成,維持”買入“評級,目標價74.7港元
格隆匯 10-12 13:29

機構:東吳證券

評級:買入

目標價:74.7港元

投資概要

自下半年起,公司第三方收購速度明顯加快,至今已完成全年目標的 60%。近期,受外圍市場波動影響,股價走低。目前估值相當於 20E/21E 市盈率 11.9x/8.6x,估值吸引,建議逢低吸納,重申買入評級,維持目標價 74.7 港元。

投資要點

西南區域地產物業明珠、全國 11 強。藍光嘉寶為中國西南地區第三大、四川省第一大物業服務商,名列 2020 年物業服務百強第 11 位。截止至 2020 上半年,公司在管總建築面積達 8,988 萬平方米,合約面積 1.4 億平方米。其中,34%在管面積來自母公司藍光集團,66%來自第三方貢獻。

今年以來第三方收併購大幅提速。自 2020 年以來,公司已斥資超過 5.3 億元收購 2573 萬方物業,意味着全年在管面積增長目標 4200 萬方已完成 61%。2016年至今,公司外拓收併購金額超過 8.55 億元,外拓面積逾 5164 萬方,其中 2020年迄今完成額佔總收購金額/面積的 62%/50%,今年以來第三方收併購速度明顯加快。

藍光集團拿地更為積極,為物業公司未來增長保駕護航。2019 年藍光集團銷售金額首次站上千億元大關。集團 2015 年完成借殼上市,2016 年至 2020H1 新增土儲總建築面積超過 5360 萬平方米,為藍光嘉寶管理面積的持續增長提供保證。2020 年上半年藍光集團新增土儲總建築面積 588.5 萬平,76%位於華東和華中地區,投資強度較 2019 年加大。

2020 上半年物業管理收入 6.73 億元,同比增長 22.54%。開發商增值服務上半年實現收入 2.9 億元,同比增長 54%,其中 63%收入來自協銷服務,36%來自物業承接驗房。社區增值服務錄得收入 1.99 億元,受疫情影響同比略增 2.9%。上半年物業收繳率較 2019 年末 88%提升至 90%,較物業百強仍有差距,未來提升空間可期。

維持目標價 74.7 港元,當前估值吸引,重申買入評級。我們認為公司儲備項目豐富,完成全年增長目標的可能性大。鑑於藍光嘉寶的區域龍頭地位、綜合實力全國 11 強、管理面積及收入增速快於行業平均水平,我們認為當前估值吸引,相當於 20E/21E 市盈率 11.9x/8.6x,有較大潛在上升空間。

風險因素:收併購進展不及預期;藍光集團注入面積不及預期;增值服務恢復不及預期;新併入項目拖累整體毛利率與收繳率。

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