基石藥業-B(02616.HK):成長價值進一步兑現,維持“買入”評級,目標價21.8港元
機構:招商證券
評級:買入
目標價:21.8港元
■ 基石藥業與輝瑞製藥達成戰略合作,其中包括基石向輝瑞授出舒格利單抗在中國市場的獨家商業化權利
■ 同時輝瑞將以每股13.37港元的溢價價格認購基石藥業股份,按擴大後股本計將持有後者9.9%的股份,增厚了當前股價的安全邊際
■ 我們認為公司與同業相比仍被低估,維持買入評級,並上調基於分部加 總估值的目標價至21.8港元輝瑞加持,CS1001商業化提速
根據協議條款,輝瑞將獲得舒格利單抗(CS1001,PD-L1抗體)在中國大陸地區的獨家商業化許可,而基石藥業則保留中國大陸以外地區開發和商業化該產品的所有權利。同時,基石繼續主導舒格利單抗圍繞五個適應症的臨牀開發和註冊戰略。除了輝瑞總計2億美元的股權投資外,公司還將有 權獲得最高達2.8億美元的潛在里程碑付款,以及梯度銷售分成(按淨銷售額的15-20%)。憑藉輝瑞在中國完善的腫瘤藥物銷售網絡(超過2,600家醫院覆蓋和超過1,000名銷售人員),我們認為此次合作將加速並提升舒格利單抗在中國的商業化潛力。
研發能力獲跨國藥企背書
根據合作框架,雙方將共同從輝瑞的研發管線或聯合從第三方引進處於後期研發階段(已經過概念驗證的)的腫瘤研發管線,並由基石來主導臨牀研發推進。我們認為這體現了大型跨國藥企充分認可公司在中國的研發實力。我們認為,公司備受認可的研發實力將有助於提升其估值空間至臨牀進度相似的PD-1/L1同業。
集中資源推進其他創新藥的商業化
除舒格利單抗外,公司預計將在2021年獲得三款小分子靶向藥的新藥上市批准,包括:用於治療複發性或難治性急性髓性白血病的Ivosidenib(IDH1i)、用於治療PDGFRA 18外顯子胃腸道基質瘤的Avapritinib( KIT/PDGFRAi )和用於 治療二線 RET+ 非小細胞肺癌的 Pralsetinib(RETi)。我們認為此次合作可以讓公司集中其新建的銷售資源,在競爭壓力較小的精準藥物領域建立優勢地位。
維持買入評級,上調基於分部加總估值的目標價至21.8港元
我們將基於分部加總估值的目標價由19.83港元上調至21.8港元,主要反映了1)將估值基期切換至2021年,2)按研發進展提升管線估值空間,3)輝瑞對公司的股權投資導致的股權稀釋。公司正由一家生物科技公司向擁有多個商業化產品的生物醫藥公司邁進。我們維持買入評級,看好公司領先的腫瘤免疫產品組合和臨牀能力,以及優秀的BD能力。

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