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恆基地產(00012.HK):合同銷售有望加速,維持“收集“評級,目標價 34.00 港元
格隆匯 10-05 14:54

機構:國泰君安

評級:收集

目標價:34.00 港元

恆基地產(00012 HK)2020 年上半年的核心淨利潤同比下跌 22.7%至 5,182 百萬港元,符合預期。恆基地產 2020 年上半年房地產銷售收入同比增長 83.4%至 65.11 億港元,主要受益於香港的物業銷售大幅增長。房地產開發業務的經營利潤率同比增長 27.3 個百分點至45.5%。香港和中國內地的物業租賃收入均錄得負增長,相關營業利潤率同比下降 3.2 個百分點至 71.6%。公司的淨負債比率上升至 28.2%,並決定維持 2020 年上半年中期每股派息在 0.50 港元。

由於新冠肺炎疫情采取的封鎖措施,2020 年上半年恆基地產的合約銷售額同比大跌 58.9%至 50.16 億港元。2020 年下半年於香港將有 3,835 個住宅單位及 242,186 平方尺的工業/寫字樓可供出售,我們認為公司的合約銷售將在下半年加快,而公司在香港的租賃業務將繼續面臨壓力,但中國內地的租賃業務將恢復正增長。此外,和生圍項目的交易已於 2020 年 7月完成。該項目的總代價為 47.05 億港元,預期將為 2020 年下半年恆基地產的核心利潤貢獻 36.86 億港元。

我們維持目標價 34.00 港元和“收集”投資評級。我們的目標價較恆基地產 2020 年每股估值有 44%折讓,亦相當於 13.7 /15.0/13.1 倍 2020/2021/2022 年核心市盈率和 0.5/0.5/0.5 倍2020/2021/2022 年市淨率。

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