寶勝國際(03813.HK)：最壞時刻已過，寶勝可受惠消費升級，給予“中性偏好”評級，目標價2.2港元
機構：元富證券
評級：中性偏好
目標價：2.2港元
寶勝國際(3813)主要經銷運動服裝和鞋類產品，為Nike及Adidas於內地的主要經銷商，原屬裕元工業(551)旗下的零售業務，於2008年分拆獨立上市，目前持有61.8%股權。由於母公司本身從事鞋服代工，於業務合作上具有優勢。集團近年持續加強以體驗為主導的實體店，同時關閉低效和業績不達標的店鋪，進一步提升整體經營效益。截至今年6月底止，擁有5597家直營店鋪，以及3839家加盟店鋪。
儘管今年多項國際體育賽事因疫情而延期或停賽，但考慮到疫症屬短期影響，體育用品長遠前景仍然可取。另外，內地中產階級的崛起，加上健康意識的增加，令運動參與率提高、寶勝將可受惠於長期的消費升級。
截至6月底止，中期純利按年急跌97.1%至1230萬元人民幣，營業額下跌12.2%至117.4億元人民幣，毛利率減少4.5個百分點至30%。上半年業績轉差，主因年初疫情的爆發，以及首季實施多項管制措施。
不過，集團的實體店鋪3月底起恢復營業，在品牌合作伙伴的支持下，實施各項促銷計劃，減低存貨水平。第二季銷售額增長已回升至正數，並恢復盈利，次季純利為1.79億元人民幣，表現優於首季的虧損1.66億元人民幣。另外，首季營業額由按年下跌25%，顯著反彈至次季微升0.3%，而在減少促銷後，新近公佈的7至8月收益合計為40.84億元人民幣，與去年同期比較僅跌3.4%。
另方面，疫情令消費者作出較大改變，居民習慣從到實體店，改為到數碼渠道購物。寶勝就此已加快數碼化轉型，在實體店推出微信商店、小程序和移動支付，促使全渠道銷售額繼續快速增長。
寶勝已於8月加入恆生綜合指數，其後獲納入深港通下的港股通，料吸引更多南向資金買入，有助成為股價上升的催化劑。
根據彭博通訊綜合市場分析，預期寶勝國際2020、2021及2022年每股盈利為0.081、0.213及0.267元人民幣，給予12個月目標價2.2港元，相當於今年預測市盈率25.1倍，評級「中性偏好」。
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