《大行報告》瑞銀上調理文造紙(02314.HK)目標價至4.31元 但維持「沽售」評級
瑞銀發表報告指,理文造紙(02314.HK)股價自9月11日以來累升約25%,主要受惠旺季潛在價格升勢帶動,該行對股份維持審慎看法,認為內地牛卡紙等進口已見上升,特別是自6月後加價後,留意到7月份進口按年升138%,而整體進口的成品佔內地需求約一成。
該行指,理文造紙在利潤方面亦有憂慮,因為公司進口廢紙配額到2021年後很有可能被降至零,故該行將公司2020至2022年盈利預測調整3-10%,以反映回收紙價向下的影響,目標價由4元升至4.3元,重申「沽售」評級。
瑞銀指出,今年首七月內地進口牛卡紙等的規模達364萬噸,按年升127%,相當於去年全年淨進口的113%,而亞洲其他地區復甦亦較中國慢,但隨著各國開始放寬隔離措施,相信在本地紙價上升的情況下,將有更多紙進口中國。因此該行相信進口紙將會為本地紙價帶來長遠的結構性影響。
瑞銀表示,理文今年以來獲99.3萬噸進口廢紙配額,按年跌28%,而基於該行與業內專家的討論,考慮到環保方面的因素,估計包裝紙生產商2021年的進口配額將被降至零,而截至9月23日,該行料進口廢紙價格較本地廢紙便宜約三成,故估計公司利潤收窄情況將持續,現時估計今明兩年每噸利潤將由2019年的525港元,各跌至502及406港元。(el/w) ~
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