中國神華(01088.HK)跟蹤分析報告：穩健中成長，回購預期或催化股價，維持“買入”評級，目標價18.60港元
機構：中信證券
評級：買入
目標價：18.60 港元
公司在“煤—電—運”產業鏈的一體化有效降低了業績波動性，同時煤炭、電力業務也不乏成長性。公司自由現金流水平充沛，具備長期高分紅能力。目前H股估值依然大幅“破淨”，董事會規劃的H股回購若完成，預計將有效縮窄A-H折價水平。我們維持公司“買入”評級。
“煤—電—運”全產業鏈龍頭，穩健中不乏成長。公司煤炭儲量豐富，資源優質，近兩年產量維持在2.8～2.9億噸，佔全國煤炭產量約8%。遠期而言公司新街礦區仍待開發，長期或帶來20%的新增產能。展望2021年，電力板塊有望貢獻新的業績增長，印尼爪哇項目二期、錦界、勝利礦區的坑口電廠，預計合計貢獻權益淨利潤16億元，公司“煤電聯營”的優勢將進一步強化。公司所屬的朔黃線是全國第二大運煤專線，盈利穩定；黃大鐵路和浩吉鐵路滿載後，長期還有望為鐵路板塊貢獻新的業績增長點。
優質“現金牛”，長期高股息可持續。公司目前資本開支規模穩定，負債率已降至30%以下，現金流充裕，具備長期高分紅的能力。未來新增的煤礦、煤化工項目投資或導致資本開支上升至約400億元以上，但自由現金流預計最低也可維持300億元的規模。資本開支高峯過後，長期年均自由現金流可望回升至600億左右。此外，預計公司長期ROE可保持在10%以上，這些都將為持續高分紅提供支撐。按照公司承諾的2019～2021年不低於50%的分紅比例，目前H股股價對應的2020年股息率有望超過8%，價值吸引力明顯。
董事會擬提請股東大會授權回購H股，有望帶動H股估值修復。公司公告，董事會擬提請股東大會授權，回購不超過已發行H股10%的股份，回購股份將進行註銷。若按照13.48港元/股計算，回購當前33.89億H股的10%或將耗資40億元人民幣。目前公司H股較A股折價近30%，雖然回購計劃對公司整體股份數量影響不大，但相對於公司港股每日約3億元左右的交易規模，回購交易的執行預計會明顯推動股價上漲。
風險因素：宏觀經濟增速放緩，影響煤炭需求；進口、環保、安監等政策放鬆。
投資建議：我們給予維持公司2020~2022年國際會計準則下EPS預測2.02/2.15/2.25元（A股會計準則對應的EPS預測為1.96/2.06/2.19元），當前股價13.48港元，對應2020~2022年PE6/5/5x，對應P/B0.65x。我們給予公司目標價18.60港元，對應2020年PE8x，維持“買入”評級。
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