光證首予農夫山泉(09633.HK)「增持」評級 指毛利率領同業 可擁較高估值
光大證券近日發表報告表示,首予農夫山泉(09633.HK)「增持」評級,指公司是中國包裝飲用水及飲料的龍頭企業,是目前中國包裝飲用水市佔率第一品牌,據報告引述Nielsen統計口徑計,農夫山泉在中國包裝飲用水市佔率達26.5%(第二位是怡寶21.3%、第三位及第四位各為百歲山(市佔率10.1%)及康師傅(00322.HK)(市佔率9.9%)。
該行指,在瓶裝水市場,農夫山泉緊緊抓住每瓶售價由1元向2元人民幣、純淨水向天然水/天然礦泉水消費升級趨勢,市佔率持續提升。該行料農夫山泉於2020年至2022年純利預測各為51.1億元、62.6億元及73.2億人民幣,料2020年至2022年每股盈利預測各為0.47、0.57及0.67元人民幣,料2020年至2022年純利複合增長率為19.7%。
光大證券在報告中並無列出對農夫山泉的具體目標價,但該行指按對其盈測,市場現時予農夫山泉估值約明年預測市率56倍,按其對公司予2021年每股盈利預測為0.57元人民幣(約0.65港元)推算,相關估值水平約每股36.4港元。
該行指,從可比農夫山泉估值看,港股可比飲料股公司的明年平均預測市盈率為15.9倍、美股可比公司於明年平均預測市盈率26.4倍、日本可比飲料公司2021年的平均預測市盈率38.7倍,據該行對農夫山泉明年預測市率56倍,高於行業水平,考慮到農夫山泉相同業更強的盈利能力(領先的毛利率及淨利率水平),指其偏高估值水平具一定合理性。
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