農夫山泉(09633.HK)：強大競爭優勢，短期調入深港通，給予“短線推薦”評級
機構：東吳證券
評級：短線推薦
市佔率及盈利能力領先同業。農夫山泉由2012年起連續8年保持中國包裝飲用水市佔率第一，2019年市場份額達20.9%，同時為全球第二大包裝飲用水企業。以去年零售額計，茶飲料、功能飲料、果汁飲料市佔率均位列前三，分別為7.9%、7.3%及3.8%。2017-19年，公司收入分別為174.9/204.8/240.2億元人民幣，年複合增長達17.2%；淨利潤分別為33.8/36.1/49.5億元人民幣，年複合增長達21%；淨利率為19.3%/17.6%/20.6%，顯着高於行業平均，市場領導地位穩固。
強大品牌形象。根據凱度消費者指數發佈的《2020亞洲品牌足跡報告》，農夫山泉躋身2019年十大消費品牌之一，排名第7位，合共有4.08億家庭用户購買過旗下產品，品牌滲透率高達63.2%，這表示每10個家庭中有6個選擇了公司的產品。由2017-19年間，其廣告及促銷費用開支逾34億元，佔總收入5-6%。公司通過廣告投放、瓶身活動、綜藝節目冠名、影視植入、明星代言、體育賽事贊助、社交媒體營銷及跨行業合作等方式全方位與消費者溝通，並創立「農夫山泉有點甜」、「我們不生產水，我們只是大自然的搬運工」等深入民心的口號。除此之外，公司擁有超過48萬個終端零售網點配有「農夫山泉」品牌形象冰櫃，作為品牌展示和提升貨架份額，尤其於夏季的銷售效果特別顯着。
渠道及水源競爭優勢明顯。今年5月31日止五個月，分銷收益佔總收益93.6%。公司通過4,454名經銷商覆蓋了全國高達243萬個以上的終端零售網點，分銷網絡巨大。其中188萬個或77%的終端零售網點位於三線或以下城市，顯示產品充份滲透到下沉市場。另外，公司向部份客户採取直營模式，包括全國或區域性的超
市、連鎖便利店、電商平台、餐廳、航空公司以及集團客户等合共247名。水源方面，農夫山泉擁有十大優質天然水源，包括浙江千島湖、廣東萬綠湖及吉林長白山等，通過12個生產基地，總計144條包裝飲用水及飲料生產線、7條鮮果榨汁線及3條鮮果生產線，為消費者長期穩定供應產品。
9月22日進入恆生綜合指數、深港通。公司在今年9月8日上市，於上市翌日恆生指數公司宣佈，農夫山泉符合快速納入指數規則要求，9月21日(週一)收市後將獲納入恆生綜合指數，並於9月22日(週二)生效。跟據過往的指數調整，這意味着當天同時調入深港通，投資者可通過深交所買賣農夫山泉的股份。
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