寶龍商業(09909.HK)：商業運營進入全新發展階段，給予“買入”評級，目標價36港元
機構：興業證券
評級：買入
目標價：36港元
首次評級覆蓋給予“買入”評級，目標價36.00港元。寶龍商業是行業領先的商業運營服務管理公司，是港股上市公司中稀缺的商管標的。受益於母公司寶龍地產的商業發展戰略，我們認為公司的進入全新的發展階段，預計公司的2020-2022年的營業收入分別為21.6、30.4和42.9億元人民幣，分別同比增長33.3%、40.6%和41.3%，核心淨利潤分別為3.03、4.43和6.50億元人民幣，分別同比增長45.5%、46.3%和46.8%。基於公司的業務發展進入高速增長期，稀缺的商管業務屬性，行業領先的競爭力，以及確定的成長空間，我們首次評級覆蓋給予“買入”評級，目標價為36.00港元，對應2020-2022年的PE分別為67、45和31倍。
商業運營服務進入全新發展階段：公司經過近20年的發展，商業運營管理模式培育成熟，上市後品牌提升，財務實力加強，外拓力度加大，內生和外延並進確保高速發展。我們預計公司2020-2022年開業的來自寶龍地產的商場個數分別為7個、10個和10個，輕資產運營的商場2020-2022年分別開業5個、10個和10個，公司2020-2022年在管的商場個數分別為71個、91個和111個，帶動公司業績穩步提升。
四大核心競爭力確保領先優勢：我們認為寶龍商業擁有4大核心競爭力，使其在激烈的行業競爭中保持領先優勢。1）豐富的行業經驗和專業化的團隊；2）成功的塑造了寶龍廣場的品牌和完善的產品線；3）藉助科技的力量提升商業效率，提升購物體驗；4）打造商業綜合體（商業+酒店+辦公+藝術+住宅），聚集多層次線下流量。
區域聚焦和輕重結合加速發展：公司通過內生和外延方式，確保規模高速增長。依託寶龍地產，聚焦長三角，成為區域市場龍頭之一，長三角區域面積佔比45%，收入貢獻佔比65%。在管項目同時依託公司成熟的運營體系，通過輕資產輸出和收併購，加快規模擴張。
風險提示：商場出租率及租金收入不及預期；商場開業進展不及預期；輕資產業務推進不及預期；物業管理收繳率不及預期
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