華潤燃氣(01193.HK):廣東省直供氣政策短期影響有限,給予“買入”評級,目標價45.6港元
機構:國元證券
評級:買入
目標價:45.6港元
2020年上半年盈利23.96億港元,同比下降18.2%:
截至2020年6月30日止六個月,公司實現營業額225.72億港元,同比下降19.9%;股東應占淨利潤23.96億港元,同比下滑18.2%,主要因接駁業務受疫情影響施工進度放慢。每股基本盈利為1.09港元,同比下降18.7%,中期股息每股15港仙。上半年實現經營性現金流36.5億港元,現金及現金結存165.3億港元,較同期分別增長22.6%和39.2%。
廣東省直供氣政策短期影響有限:
近期廣東省出台“天然氣直供”政策,並明確“直供大用户”准入門檻為年用氣量達到1000萬立方米以上、靠近主幹管道且具備直接下載條件。我們認為“天然氣直供”政策對城市燃氣特許經營權直接構成衝擊和負面影響,但政策出台和執行還需要時間,對城燃公司的業績短期影響有限。未來在“天然氣直供”市場化改革趨勢下,預期城燃企業亦可以參與提供管輸服務或者參股建設新的管道而增加收益,具有核心競爭優勢的城燃公司也將進入上游直供市場,獲得新的市場份額。
寧波和重慶項目將增厚公司業績:
寧波合資項目於8月正式運營,而近期在通過反壟斷審查後,華潤金控將全面要約收購重慶燃氣,預期未來重慶燃氣股權將注入華潤燃氣,因此寧坡和重慶項目將對公司業績產生增量貢獻。2020年上半年公司實現簽約項目14個,註冊項目7個,預計增加用户131萬户,增加銷氣量15億方/年。未來公司持續外延項目併購也將支撐公司業績持續增長。
給予買入評級,目標價45.6港元:
我們更新公司盈利預測並結合行業內可比公司估值情況,給予公司目標價45.6港元,相當於2021年和2022年19倍和17倍PE,目標價較現價有24%上升空間,給予買入評級。

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