大悦城地產(00207.HK)：租金收入持續恢復
機構：興業證券
投資要點
我們的觀點：公司與A股主體分工明確，未來將發展為專業的商業運營上市主體，物業銷售佔比將進一步壓縮控制。上半年公司的租金收入受衝擊下滑，預計全年租金也會受到一定影響。長期來看，公司的商場質量資產優質，商業模式成熟定位清晰，已開業成熟商場現金流回報穩定，增量商場逐步投入運營，預計2020至2022年還將分別開業2、5、3個商場。公司的當前股價對應2019年PE為5.7倍，當前股息收益率為7.7%。
核心淨利潤同比下降75%，業績符合預期：2020H1公司實現營業收入35億元人民幣（下同），同比下降48%，收入下滑主要由於物業開發貢獻下降。投資物業及相關服務、物業及土地開發、輸出管理及其他服務、酒店收入佔比分別為46%、46%、3%和5%，投資物業及相關服務和物業及土地開發收入佔比分別增長13和下降14個百分點。歸母核心淨利潤為1.4億元，同比下降75%，下滑幅度擴大主要是由SG&A費用率增長（收入下降但持續產生日常營運費用開支尤其是投資物業方面）以及有效税率增長（遞延税項增長）導致。投資物業收入佔比增加，拉動毛利率提升6.7個百分點至59.7%。歸母核心淨利率為3.9%，同比下降4.3個百分點。
銷售均價高於行業平均水平：上半年公司累計實現銷售金額和銷售面積68億元、20萬平米，銷售均價為33805元/平米，銷售均價高於行業平均水平。從中糧集團戰略層面來説，未來物業銷售業務將主要放在A股主體大悦城（000031.SZ），大悦城地產（207.HK）則着力培育商業，物業銷售比例將會得到進一步控制，大悦城地產拿地以綜合體形式或A股主體孵化注入形式實現。截至2020H1，公司的土儲可售面積為260萬平米，大悦城（000031.SZ）的土儲可售面積達1200萬平米。
租金收入持續恢復：受到公共衞生事件影響，公司一季度實行2.6億元商户免租，購物中心銷售額和客流量都大幅下滑，尤其北京主力大悦城商場更是受到了二次衝擊。截至年中各項數據已基本恢復，但上半年租金收入仍然受挫明顯，預計下半年將延續修復勢頭。上半年公司購物中心的銷售額為65億元，同比下降43%；租金收入為10億元，同比下降33%；EBITDA為9億元，同比下降26%；EBITDA率為84%，仍然保持高位。
保持較低槓桿水平：截至2020H1公司的淨負債率為46.2%，較2019年末增長5.3個百分點。平均融資成本為4.3%，較2019年末下降0.3個百分點。公司的賬面現金為141億元，有息負債為367億元，其中短期債務佔比為18%，現金短債比超過2倍，EBITDA對利息保障倍數達到2.35倍，財務狀況足夠安全。
風險提示：宏觀經濟增長放緩、行業限制政策加嚴、流動性收緊、商品房銷售不及預期、人民幣貶值、租金收入不及預期。
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