心動公司(02400.HK)：用户高增長，心動與TAPTAP協同效應強化，維持“買入”評級，目標價格53.52港元
機構：廣發證券
評級：買入
目標價：53.52港元
公司發佈2020年中報：2020H1公司共實現營業收入14.4億元，同比增長10.0%；其中游戲業務收入11.9億元，同比增長8.1%，信息服務收入2.53億元，同比增長19.9%。實現歸母淨利潤2.07億元，同比下降12.7%，主要由於上半年進一步加大研發投入所致。
網絡遊戲用户增長明顯，付費遊戲業務表現突出。2020H1公司網絡遊戲平均月活躍用户為3047.4萬人，同比增長65.4%，預計主要來自《香腸派對》的用户增長；平均月付費用户98.2萬人，同比增長52.2%。以此測算遊戲業務平均付費率3.2%，較2019年下降0.5pct；每付費用户平均ARPU值188.6元/月，較2019年下降明顯，我們認為主要由於《香腸派對》在用户高增長之下，其付費設計並不氪金，因此拉低公司整體的付費率和付費ARPU值。此外，2020H1公司付費遊戲業務收入同增98%，主要來自《惡果之地》任天堂Switch版及移動版。
增持易玩股份，強化心動與TAPTAP協同效應。公司將以3.3億元收購Taptap公司易玩網絡18.34%股權，持股比例將增加至74.12%。2020H1，Taptap月均MAU達2480萬，同比上升51.9%，較2019年年均MAU1790萬增長38.5%。對應單MAU廣告收入20.4元，同比下降21%，主要由於：（1）受疫情影響，中小廠商的投放較保守；（2）新增用户的廣告價值、廣告投放精準度等有逐步提升的過程。TAPTAP活躍度持續提升，向社區轉型是未來重點方向。
投資建議：由於產品上線週期調整及流水變化、TAPTAP單用户廣告價值變化，我們調整公司2020-2022年Non-GAAP歸母淨利潤預測至4.01、6.21和7.78億元，同比增長-1.1%、54.8%和25.3%。我們對遊戲業務和信息服務業務進行分部估值，參考可比公司情況，給予遊戲業務2021年20xPE，社區業務80美金/MAU，對應心動公司整體合理估值243億港幣，合理價值53.52港元/股。維持“買入”評級。
風險提示：流水低於預期風險、政策風險、TapTap增長低於預期風險。
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