中手遊(00302.HK)以IP賦能為核心，形成遊戲研運新生態，給予“買入”評級
機構：廣發證券
評級：買入
核心觀點：
IP賦能遊戲效果突出， “授權+收購”儲備版權超百款。IP 可為遊戲引流，提供劇情、題材等支持，加快研發進程，促進版號獲取。據iOS 暢銷榜統計， 15~19年iOS遊戲暢銷榜的 IP 改編遊戲數量佔比呈上升趨勢，19 年佔比達到 60%，IP 已成為非常重要的資源。中手遊圍繞 IP遊戲戰略，與多個世界知名版權公司達成深度合作，至今累計獲得39個授權 IP，包括全球頂級二次元 IP “航海王” 、 “火影忍者” 、 “龍珠” 、“SNK”等，以及國民級武俠 IP“射鵰三部曲” ，雙方合作穩固，從 15年至今已進行多次續簽。此外，通過收購北京軟星，將“仙劍、軒轅劍、大富翁”等重要版權納入麾下，截至2020H1 自有 IP 數量達到68 個。
發行能力突出，以 IP和資本為紐帶，構築研發體系。公司遊戲發行領域積累先發優勢。公司將 IP 與優質CP方合理匹配，體內自研團隊主要包括文脈、軟星，體外與107 家研發公司有合作關係，股權投資22家公司，其中樂府互娛、寰宇九州在IP遊戲研發上已有深厚的積累。目前兩大遊戲核心渠道騰訊與字節都將代理公司手遊作品，包括騰訊代理的 CCG《妖怪名單之前世今生》 、 《真三國無雙：霸》 ；字節代理的ARPG《航海王熱血航線》 、CCG《全明星激鬥》 。
投資建議：短期來看，公司代理遊戲《新射鵰羣俠傳》上線後穩居暢銷榜前列，表現超預期；自研產品《龍城傳奇》的前期測試數據良好，即將進行買量投放；與騰訊、字節合作的多款重磅產品將在 Q4 陸續上線，業績有望加速增長。通過 IP 遊戲領域優勢積累，公司在競爭激烈的手遊市場中左右逢源，與多家頭部研發、發行商達成合作，持續擴大競爭優勢，我們認為在持續的爆款產品輸出後，公司以IP 為核心的研運生態將逐步得到市場認可。我們預計20~22年Non-GAAP歸母淨利潤為 7.94/11.4/14.1 億元，根據可比估值給予其 20 年 15xPE 估值，算得每股合理價值 5.79 港元/股，首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級。
風險提示：IP無法獲得授權；遊戲版號延期；新遊戲流水不及預期。
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