《大行报告》瑞银降长建(01038.HK)评级至「中性」 目标价下调至40元
瑞银发表的研究报告指,预计未来五年本地公用股回报将现差异,并将成重要主题之一,该行认为长江基建(01038.HK)在海外资产较多,约占盈利的七成,估计将为股价带来拖累,但对公司看法并非太负面,评级由「买入」降至「中性」,认为股价今年以来跑输,而股息率达6厘估计亦会带来支撑。瑞银仍相信公司可维持其每股派息,估计任何新项目收购都能成为正面的催化剂,但时间仍具高度不确定性。
瑞银指出未来数月一些受规管的公用资产均会面对监管转变,或会导致香港及非香港业务回报出现差异,惟投资者未有留意相关情况。该行指出英国及澳洲受监管的公用业务回报在2010至2014年起呈跌势,而基准名义股本回报率由2010至14年的10.5%跌至2015至19年的7.5%,估计2020至24年将续跌至4.7%。该行指出由於长建项目营运效率较高,故旗下项目回报较高,但不认为相关因素足以抵销监管因素对回报带来的负面影响。
该行将公司2021至22年盈利预测降5%,以反映英国及澳洲监管因素带来的影响,2023年预测则大幅降11%,以反映对前景较悲观,目标价降31%,由58元降至40元。
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