快遞行業2020年中報總結：利潤分化向現金流傳導，首選現金流優質的龍頭，維持“買入”評級
機構：廣發證券
評級：買入
外部環境加速格局演進，利潤分化向現金流傳導。受疫情影響，快遞行業上半年最大的特徵就在於：1.業務量集中在二季度釋放，快遞公司回量訴求加劇了價格戰；2.公路通行費免徵、增值税減免等優惠政策，打破了快遞成本的競爭格局，總部讓利加碼。通達百上半年的單件快遞成本差距縮小，總部的讓利更加主動。反映到報表上，利潤分化已經傳導到現金流。具體來看，2020H1，韻達、圓通、申通、中通扣非淨利分別同比變化-52.87%、+8.15%、-95.94%、-10.67%；經營性淨現金流分別同比變化-79.95%、+12.13%、-149.16%、-45.55%。
價格策略具有短期性，現金分化是龍頭突圍的強信號。上半年，各家總部都採取了直接降面單和中轉費率的方式，直接為攬件端減負。韻達和申通分別對華南、華中地區大力扶持，伴隨網絡平衡度的提升，成本效率有望進一步提高。階段性的市場策略，雖然會衝擊短期利潤和現金流，但不會動搖公司精細化管控的根基。從現金層面來看，中通、韻達的類現金餘額仍遠高於同行。經營性淨現金流和類現金餘額的分化是龍頭突圍的強信號，中通優質的現金流是公司持續擴張，優化管理，穩固龍頭地位的保障。
45億定增補足圓通現金短板，航空有望帶領公司走出國門。據公司公告，阿里將向公司控股股東和實際控制人收購公司3.8億股股份，同時，公司擬非公開發行6.3億股，募資45億元。我們認為，阿里對通達百的股權投資，短期內不會影響行業格局，而新一輪的定增將為圓通注入活水，為圓通參與龍頭競爭提供支持。截止2020H1，圓通的期末現金及現金等價物餘額+其他流動資產約為46億元，45億定增將補足圓通現金短板。航空貨運在疫情中的高景氣有望部分延續，未來可助圓通走出國門。
順豐上半年業績超預期，時效件增勢有望延續。順豐上半年最大的變化就在時效件增速回至19%的高位。伴隨特惠專配初具規模，時效件貨品調整，順豐的快遞業務已全面迴歸正軌，這種趨勢具備可持續性。從產能利用及投入看，成本效率的優化空間還很大。物流方面，重貨、冷鏈皆已做到行業第一，有望率先成為公司的第二增長極。短期盈利與否並非核心矛盾，新業務的孵化需要戰略格局和耐心。
投資建議。上半年，外部環境的特殊性讓行業格局發生了一定的變化，具體表現為：1.直營快遞的業績表現遠超加盟快遞；2.具備規模優勢的公司，成本的邊際改善反而更小。我們認為，階段性市場策略，對短期利潤和現金流的衝擊，暫未實質性改變行業格局。加盟快遞的分化正從利潤端轉向現金流，這是龍頭突圍的強信號，中通成長為中國快遞龍頭的趨勢正一步步增強。順豐雙業重歸平衡，願景、能力、賽道三要素高度匹配，聚焦核心優勢有望加速順豐成長為中國綜合物流龍頭。建議關注：順豐控股，中通快遞、圓通速遞、韻達股份。
風險提示。疫情出現反覆，快遞價格戰加劇，宏觀經濟下行，油價波動。
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