融創中國(01918.HK)：貨值優勢猶存，物管文旅強勁恢復，維持“買入”評級，目標價：53.39 港元
機構：西南證券
評級：維持買入
目標價：53.39 港元
業績總結：2020H1]公司實現營業收入773.4億元（+0.7%），實現歸母淨利潤109.6億元（+6.5%），核心淨利潤130.4億元（+3.0%）。由於業務合作導致公允價值調整的波動，報告期公司毛利率下滑2.2pp至23.0%；但公司淨利率上升0.8pp至14.2%，反應了費率改善及效益的提升。同時，公司亦在持續改善負債狀況，2020年6月底，公司淨負債率為149%，較2019年末下降23pp，報告期新增融資成本相比2019年下降約1.9pp。
下半年可售貨值充沛，強力支撐銷售恢復。在疫情衝擊下，公司上半年銷售額受到一定衝擊，同比下降8.8%至1953億元。下半年預計公司新增可售資源4452億元（上半年末留存可售貨值為1761億），按60%的去化率保守估算全年銷售額能達到5680億，超過去年整體水平。公司貨值的優勢依然明顯，從結構上看一線、二線和強三線城市分別佔比9%、67%和24%。
嚴控拿地節奏補貨，總體土儲貨值超三萬億。報告期內公司考慮土地市場過熱，嚴控拿地節奏，以規避拿貴地的風險，上半年新增土儲貨值為2330億元，較去年同期下降64%。公司土儲充沛，報告期末確權土儲建面超2.5億平方米，對應貨值超3萬億元，平均土地成本4312元/平方米，其中80%位於一二線城市。
融創服務上市在即，融創文旅強勁恢復。物業管理業務方面，2020年8月6日融創服務向聯交所遞交上市申請，2020年中在管面積達1.01億平方米，儲備合同面積達1.26億平方米；物業服務佈局住宅、商辦及城市業態，在管面積佔比分別為73%、13%和14%；2020H1物業營收大幅增長41%至32.9億元，未來在融創的充沛土儲支持下，增長動力有望保持強勁。文旅業務方面，隨着國內疫情的迅速控制，公司文旅業務快速恢復，單月營收由4月份的1億元增至8月的5億元，2020H1對應營收僅微降9%至9.8億元。
盈利預測與投資建議。預計公司20/21/22年EPS分別為人民幣6.98/8.49/9.77元，考慮到公司土地充沛優質、下半年銷售有望明顯回暖，淨負債率顯著降低，以及融創服務及融創文旅的強勁表現及可能的分拆上市，我們維持公司“買入”評級，目標價53.39港元維持不變。
風險提示：年度業績結算不及預期、融資政策超預期收緊等。
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