江南布衣(03306.HK)：業績大幅下滑，股息具有吸引力，給予“審慎增持”評級，目標價8.87港元
機構：興業證券
評級：審慎增持
目標價：8.87港元
投資要點
公司發佈2020 全年業績：營收 30.99 億元，同比-7.7%，毛利潤 18.5 億元，同比-10%，淨利潤 3.47 億元，同比-28.5%。其中，公司擬派發末期股息每股0.5 元，派息比率約為 75%。20H1 營收 9.64 億元，同比-27.6%，毛利潤 5.1 億元，同比-36.6%，毛利率 53.4%，歸母淨利潤-0.83 億元，同比-180%。
我們的點評如下：
疫情對公司負面影響較大：1）公司為維護品牌價值及形象，在疫情期間仍舊維持原折扣水平，產品銷量受較大沖擊；2) 線下實體店表現不理想，FY20 可比同店增速為-4.9%；3）線上銷售佔比營收 15%，雖然較去年同期上升 1.3ppt，但對營收貢獻不大。
公司經營槓桿高，上半年虧損 0.83 億元。公司正常年份的兩費率在 45%， FY20 費用絕對值基本持平，但租賃開支、折舊攤銷等固定成本的單位攤 銷變大，上半年銷售費率、行政費率分別驟升至 52.2%、13.6%，造成上半年虧損 0.83 億元。
存貨水平處於高位：20H1 存貨週轉天數為 363 天，同比上升 65 天。
下一財年戰略：繼續升級門店，發展線上新零售：1）品牌：終止 SAMO男裝品牌業務，升級 Reverb 環保面料品牌，新開“江南布衣+”會員集合店；2）門店：店鋪形象升級，並新開 30-50 家門店；3）線上：利用私域流量增強與粉絲粘性，利用電商平台清理庫存。
我們的觀點：下調盈利及目標價至 8.87 港元，並下調至審慎增持評級。我們看好公司未來長期的多品牌全渠道戰略所帶來的業績驅動，以及線上活躍會員粉絲的穩定性。但由於疫情等宏觀因素的不利影響，我們下調 FY21/22/23 年 營 收 至 34.2 億 元 /38.0 億 元 /42.6 億 元 ， 增 速 為10.2%/11.1%/12.3%，EPS 分別為 0.71 元/0.82 元/0.95 元，下調公司目標價至 8.87 港元，現價對應 FY21/22/23 年 P/E 為 11.0x/9.5x/8.2x，股息率約7%，估值及股息率具有吸引力。
風險提示：終端銷售不及預期、品牌拓展及協同不及預期、行業競爭加劇。
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