中國飛鶴(06186.HK)：超高端高增長，下半年再加速，維持“買入”評級，目標價20.80 港元
機構：興業證券
評級：買入
目標價：20.80 港元
投資要點
上半年收入、業績超預期，由高端嬰配奶粉拉動。1H20 公司實現銷售收 入 87.07 億元，同比增速 47.8%，實現歸母淨利潤 27.53 億元，同比增速57.2%，收入、業績增速均超過市場預期。
分產品來看，上半年高端嬰配奶粉銷售收入為 67.7 億元，同比增速為 73%；普通嬰配奶粉銷售收入為 15.4 億元，同比增速為 9.4%；其他乳製品收入2.05 億元，同比增速-17.2%；營養補充品收入 1.86 億元，同比增速-41.6%，公司強勁的經營表現主要由高端嬰配奶粉拉動。超高端星飛帆上半年收入為 47.3 億元，同比增速為 71.4%；臻稚有機收入為 5.05 億元，同比增速87.5%；高端系列收入 15.4 億元，同比增速 73.4%。公司超高端產品佔比從 1H19 的 51.4%提升至 1H20 的 60.7%，提高公司整體產品結構並帶來超預期的業績增長。
費用率總體平穩，淨利率提升 1.9pct。1H20 公司銷售費用率為 25.2%，相比去年同期下降 1.1pct，公司管理費用率為 6.1%，相比去年同期提升1.1%，期間費用率總體持平。其中，銷售費用率有所降低主要繫上半年線上活動較多，相對線下活動費用較少；管理費用率提升的原因是人員工資比去年增加了 90%，主要是對基層人員和生產工程、技術人員的工資進行大幅提升。由於毛利率同比有明顯提升，費用率相對持平，公司淨利率相比去年同期提升了 1.9pct。
公司給出下半年高指引，上調全年業績預測。公司上半年收入增速 47.8%、歸母淨利潤增速 57.2%，考慮到下半年增速通常快於上半年、且今年上半年受特殊事件影響有所拖累，我們認為下半年收入增速有望達到 57%、業績增速有望達到 67%，故上調公司的盈利模型，20-22 年的 EPS 分別為0.72、0.92、1.18 元，對應 2020 年 8 月 27 日的收盤價，PE 分別為 20、15、 12 倍，維持買入評級。
風險提示：食品安全事件；新生兒數量不及預期；新品推廣不及預期。
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