中國通信服務(00552.HK)2020年中期業績點評報告：下半年運營商業務反彈，驅動全年利潤恢復正增長，維持“買入”評級，目標價 6.6 港元
機構：光大證券
評級：買入
目標價：6.6 港元
◆1H20 收入及毛利率輕微下降、費用管控得當對應淨利潤小幅下降
2020H1 實現收入 528 億元人民幣，同比下降 4%，其中國內運營商業務、國內非運營商業務以及海外業務佔比分別為 56.7%/40.6%/2.7%，主要由於國內電信運營商業務明顯下滑，部分為國內非運營商業務以及海外業務維持增長所抵消。毛利率為 11.0%，同比輕微下降 0.2 個百分點，主要由於公司拓展高毛利業務、優化業務結構、降本增效，減輕了疫情對毛利率影響；同時加強銷售及行政費用管控，銷售及行政費用率同比持平。由於收入及毛利率輕微下降影響，歸母淨利潤同比下降 6.1%至 15.9 億人民幣，對應淨利率 3.0%。
◆下半年運營商業務反彈，驅動全年利潤恢復正增長
公司 97%的業績貢獻來自於國內市場，考慮到國內疫情逐步緩解，二季度需求面、供給面問題已見明顯改善；伴隨下半年國內運營商網絡建設節奏加快有望驅動運營商業務恢復健康增長；同時非運營商業務限制主要在於新客户拓展方面，伴隨全國各地恢復正常復工差旅後，非運營商業務增速有望提升；綜合運營商及非運營商業務表現，我們預計公司全年收入有望維持正增長。考慮到疫情相關剛性成本、防疫支出減少有望驅動下半年淨利潤相比上半年環比增長，我們預計全年淨利潤增速約 5%。
◆非運營商利潤率提升機會更加明朗，有望驅動整體利潤率改善
運營商業務受制於下游運營商強勢議價能力、存在毛利率持續下滑壓力，未來整體利潤率改善有賴非運營商業務毛利率改善，公司通過提供總包一體化項目佔比以及高價值業務量佔比、非運營商業務毛利率改善機會更加明朗。非運營商業務中，1 億以上的大項目合同量佔比從 19 年的 8%提升到 1H20 的 14%。
◆估值與評級
考慮到 1H20 毛利率表現優於此前預期，我們上調 20 年淨利潤預測 1%至31.7 億元，維持 21 年預測為 36.7 億元，新增 22 年預測為 41.7 億元人民幣，分別同比增長 5.4%/15.7%/13.6%。伴隨疫情影響結束、5G 時代運營商及非運營商市場相繼投資，公司 21 年業績有望實現較大反彈，考慮到未來業績具備可持續的穩健增長機會以及穩定分紅水平，維持目標價 6.6 港幣（對應20/21/22 年 13/11/10 倍 PE），維持“買入”評級。
◆風險提示：國內疫情發酵；5G 建設放緩；運營商業務毛利率壓力加大；非運營商業務放緩。
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