康師傅控股(00322.HK)：2020H1業績超預期，方便麪業務快速增長，維持“買入”評級
機構：廣發證券
評級：買入
核心觀點：2020H1 業績超預期。公司發佈業績公告，2020H1 公司實現營業收入329.3 億元，同比增長 8.0%；本公司歸母淨利潤 23.8 億元，同比增長58.4%；公司方便麪事業收益同比增長 29.2%，為上半年銷售額增長的主要動力。2020H1 公司的銷售費用率為 19.7%，同比下降 1.1 個百分點；管理費用率為 3.4%，同比下降 0.5 個百分點，費用率下降和產品結構升級為利潤增速高於收入增速的主要原因。
方便麪業務收入創新高，市場佔有率繼續位列市場第一位。2020H1 公 司方便麪業務收入 149.1 億元，同比增長 29.2%；收入的快速增長主要受益於公司管理體系的數字化、組織和渠道扁平化的改革；據尼爾森市場數據顯示，截止 2020 年 6 月 30 日，公司方便麪產品的市佔率為45.8%（按銷售額），繼續位居市場第一位。2020H1 公司飲品營業收入為 176.2 億元，同比下降 4.1%；雖然公司飲品業務受疫情影響營業收入下降，但由於產品結構升級，飲品毛利同比上升 1.5 個百分點至35.8%；預計隨着夏季消費旺季到來，飲品業務收入將恢復正常水平。
預計 2020-2022 年營業收入為 667.4/693.8/712.6 億元。2020 公司將繼續推行產品結構的優化和渠道改革，營業收入將繼續增長，預計2020-2022 年 營 業 收 入 為 667.4/693.8/712.6 億 元 ， 同 比 增 長7.7%/4.0%/2.7%；歸母淨利潤為 35.2/37.1/37.8 億元，同比增長5.7%/5.2%/2.0%。當前價格對應 2020-2022 年 PE 為 21.7、20.6 和20.2 倍；參考可比公司估值，我們給予公司 2020 年 26 倍 PE，對應合理價值為 18.26 港元/股，維持“買入”評級。
風險提示。原材料價格大幅提升；食品安全問題。 注：本文除特別説明外，均使用人民幣為貨幣幣種。
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