藥明生物(02269.HK)1H20業績：受益新冠項目，業績大幅超出預期，維持“買入”評級，目標價211.7 港元
機構：浦發銀行
評級：買入
目標價：211.7 港元
1H20 業績大幅超出預期，維持買入評級，提升目標價至 211.7 港元，潛在升幅 20.0%。
增長大幅超過市場預期： 1H20 收入同比增長 21%至 1,944 百萬元，超出市場預期，也大幅好於 6 月投資者交流日中給出的指引（見之前報告《藥明生物：短期受疫情影響，長期向好》），主要由於 2,410 萬美元的里程碑收入。歸母淨利潤大幅增長 63%至 731 百萬元，在調整股權激勵開支和外匯影響後的歸母淨利潤同比增長 41%。Backlog 同比大幅增加 104%至 9,464 百萬美元，其中未完成服務訂單增加 233%，主要來自於簽訂的 20 年近 30 億美元疫苗 CMO 合同和 3 億美元新冠相關項目。
投資收益佔比加大：淨利率較去年同期的 28.0%增加至 37.6%，較去年同期增加了 9.6pcts，其中其他收益比重增加了 9.7pcts，主要由於匯兑損益和投資收益。管理層表示，雖然投資業務主要聚焦戰略性投資，但未來隨着被投企業上市也可能是常見項。
新冠項目帶來更多增長：目前已有十多個新冠項目，合約總價值 3.2億美元，相關收入將在今年和明年帶來 8,000 萬和 1.5 億美元的收入。目前的 5.2 萬升的產能也因為新冠項目達到了 100%的利用率。隨着更多項目商業化，2021 年計劃投產規模為 12.5 萬升，今明兩年的資本開支每年為 50 億美元。公司新冠項目收入也取決於新冠疫情進展。
維持買入評級，提升目標價至 211.7 港元：基於 Backlog 和產能擴張計劃，我們對 2020-2022 年收入增長預期分別為 33%，53%和 45%，淨利潤增速為 50%，31%和 46%。我們重申對公司的買入評級，提升目標價至 211.7 港元，對應 2021 年 122 倍的市盈率。作為生物藥 CDMO 龍頭，相比港股 CRO 公司平均市盈率 91.8 倍享有 33%的溢價。
投資風險： 疫情影響項目延遲或取消；客户臨牀試驗失敗。
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