中國電信(00728.HK):業務將穩步增長,維持“買入“評級,目標價 3.40 港元
機構:國泰君安
評價:買入
目標價:3.40 港元
中國電信 2020 財年上半年業績略好於我們的預期。服務收入同比增長 2.5%,同時移動ARPU 的降幅較 2019 年有所收窄。EBITDA 利潤率同比下降 0.9 個百分點,而股東淨利同比上升 0.3%。儘管受到新冠肺炎疫情的影響,2020 年 1-7 月的總移動用户數仍實現了1,050 萬户的淨增數。我們預計 2020 年下半年移動用户數仍將增長。
我們預計 2020 財年下半年的移動 ARPU 將逐漸企穩。由於市場競爭有所緩和,同時提速和降費政策的影響減弱,我們預計 4G ARPU 的降幅將在 2020 年下半年收窄。我們預計5G 用户比例將在 2020 年下半年保持強勁增長,這將推動整體移動 ARPU 的恢復。
我們預計2020 財年下半年產業數字化業務將快速增長。由於訂單的快速上漲,預計產業數字化收入將在 2020 年實現兩位數增長。作為中國第三大公共雲提供商和最大的混合雲企業、以及中國最大的 IDC 提供商,我們預計公司可以利用其規模效應促進雲業務和雲網融合的發展。
我們將目標價從 3.20 港元上調至 3.40 港元,並維持公司“買入”的投資評級。我們分別上調 2020-2022 財年每股盈利預測 7.2%/ 8.4%/ 6.5%。目標價相當於 11.5 倍、10.9 倍和10.2 倍 2020-2022 財年市盈率。

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