崑崙能源(00135.HK)：中石油旗下的天然氣龍頭，給予“買入”評級，目標價 9.5 港元
機構：天風證券
評級：買入
目標價： 9.5 港元
崑崙能源：中石油旗下的天然氣龍頭公司
2015 年，崑崙能源收購中國石油所持的中石油崑崙燃氣有限公司 100%股權，成為中國石油天然氣業務的融資平台和投資主體、天然氣終端利用業務的管理平台。中國石油天然氣集團公司是公司實際最大控股股東，間接持股比例達到 57.58%。
崑崙能源主要從事城市燃氣、天然氣管道、液化天然氣（LNG）和壓縮天然氣（CNG）終端、天然氣發電和分佈式能源、液化天然氣（LNG）加工與儲運、液化石油氣（LPG）銷售等業務，其中天然氣銷售業務是最主要的收入來源，佔比達到 82%，但是在税前利潤中，貢獻最多利潤的是天然氣管道業務，佔比達到 43%。
擁有優質管網資產，剝離作價有望好於預期
公司優質管網資產主要包括陝京線管道和三座 LNG 接收站。
本次管道出讓作價，中國石化 1.42PB，中國石油 1.21PB，均好於預期。但是崑崙能源相關資產目前仍未正式披露出讓信息，未來若出讓，作價有望類比中石油、中石化情況，好於此前的悲觀預期。
中石油資源優勢顯著，未來重心是“資源換市場”
管道剝離後，預計公司未來的發展重心是通過“資源換市場”，在燃氣領域加速擴張。近年來，公司充分發揮資源優勢，於 19 年大舉收購金鴻控股旗下 17 家燃氣資產，拓展下游版圖。在此發展思路下，公司近幾年銷氣量增速在 20%左右，高於行業平均水平，尤其在 19 年，公司銷氣增速超過 25%，而行業平均增速不足 8%。
預計未來公司有望藉助母公司資源優勢和協同效應，通過收購燃氣項目等多種方式增強終端市場拓展力度，未來銷氣量增速有望保持行業內領先水平。
不考慮管道資產剝離的情況，預計公司 20-22 年歸母淨利潤 53/62/71 億人民幣。對應 EPS 為 0.61/0.72/0.81 元/股，參考競爭對手 20 年估值水平，給予 14 倍 PE，目標價 9.5 港元（8.5 元人民幣），首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級。
風險提示：管道作價不及預期；天然氣銷售業務拓展不及預期；管輸費下調風險；國內天然氣需求增速放緩。
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