高鑫零售(06808.HK)：H1線上業務亮眼，轉型成果顯著，維持“審慎增持”評級，目標價12港元
機構：興業證券
評級：審慎增持
目標價：12港元
投資要點
H1營收同比增長5.1%，雙品牌助力收入增長。20H1 公司營收 531.7 億 元，同比+5.1%。具體來看：1）貨品銷售收入為 514.94 億元，同比+6.1%，雙品牌整合效果顯著，同店銷售增長較好，同比增速為 5.7%，助力公司收入增長；2）租金收入為 16.76 億元，同比-18.8%，上半年受疫情因素影響租金收入有所豁免。 ? 同店表現靚麗，線上到家業務拉動作用明顯。BCE 業務 Q1 店日均單量超過 750 單/店，客單價超過 85 元；Q2 店日均單量超過 950 單/店，客單價超過 68 元，訂單量較 19 年同比增 50%。單量提升、客單價增長，促使B2C 的經營模式進一步優化，業務獲利能力進一步提升。
毛利潤率下降，政府補助及福利減免帶來經營利潤率小幅上升。1）毛利潤為130.54億元，同比-1.0%；毛利率為24.6%，同比-0.7ppt，主要由於公司上半年租金收入減少所致。2）經營利潤為33.46億元，經營利潤率為6.3%，同比+0.3ppt。政府減免若干社會福利項目，導致主要費用率下降，其中銷售費用率同比-1.25ppt，管理費用率同比-0.49ppt，財務費用率同比-0.08ppt。3）歸母淨利潤20.62億元，同比+16.7%。
公司看點：1）公司線上新業務表現亮眼，透過淘鮮達、餓了麼、天貓超市、菜鳥驛站等平台入口，線上消費心智在加速養成；2）大賣場重構提升賣場生產力，公司將改造大賣場數量由計劃的 50 家調整至 40 家。已經完成 5 家重構，15 家正在施工中，從此前完成改造的門店來看，同店增長可提升 7ppt；3）多業態渠道發展，開啟大型、中型、小型商店齊頭並進的多業態展店模式，公司今年計劃新開約 10 家大賣場，2-3 家中型超市，以及 30 家小型社區超市；4）雙品牌整合將繼續推進。
盈利預測：預計 2020/21E 歸母淨利潤 30.8/32.7 億元，維持目標價 12 港元，對應 2020/21 年 PE 為 31/29x，維持“審慎增持”評級。
風險提示：疫情的不確定性，零售業景氣度下降；線下業務下滑超預期；新零售回報低於預期。
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