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中國有贊(08083.HK)2020年中報點評:經營性現金流轉正,規模效應開始顯現,維持“買入”評級
格隆匯 08-12 18:56

機構:光大證券

評級:買入

◆用户端:單季度留存率同比改善

公司Q2存量付費用户同比增長47%;Q2公司付費用户流失率10.7%,同比下降2.0pct。雖然單季度10.7%流失率的絕對值仍然不低,然而我們始終認為公司產品的低門檻與易用性是流失率絕對值較高的根源,大量生命週期較短的中小商户拉低了公司整體用户留存率水平;從同比角度看,公司用户單季度流失率仍然實現了一定程度的改善,我們認為這主要是由以下兩個原因導致的:1/快手等平台的直播電商商家整體體量與經營效率高於存量商家,因此帶來了客户結構的改善;2/公司產品及服務質量的不斷提升進一步降低了用户流失率水平。

◆GMV端:單客户貢獻GMV繼續同比提升

公司Q2實現GMV254億元,同比增長112%;單客户單季度貢獻25.4萬元,同比增長44%。公司在GMV端繼續受益於直播電商紅利;根據我們估計快手電商2019年實現GMV600億元以上,2020年GMV規模有望突破2500億元。有贊是快手電商體系內重要的SaaS供應商(2019Q4最高佔快手GMV比例高達40%),公司也有望繼續受益於快手電商GMV規模的繼續快速增長。同時公司在其他社交流量平台的廣泛佈局也有望使其受益於電商流量來源泛化的大趨勢。

◆收入端:營收增速與GMV增速差距開始收窄

2020Q2公司營收同比增長76.2%,GMV同比增長112%,營收與GMV增速差距35.5pct,與前兩個季度相比出現了顯著收窄(2019Q4增速差距86.2pct,2020Q1增速差距59.1pct)。我們認為收入與GMV增速差距出現收窄的主要原因在於各類GMV提成類產品的逐漸成熟,公司擔保服務費(收取GMV0.5%)、分銷服務費(收取分銷GMV1-5%)等產品滲透率的逐步提升使得公司收入增速開始與GMV增速靠攏。

◆盈利端:利潤水平與經營性現金流顯著改善

在用户數、GMV及收入規模等指標繼續大幅增長的同時,公司利潤水平及經營性現金流也出現了顯著改善。Q2公司單季度虧損9787萬元,與去年同期虧損1.35億元相比實現了大幅減虧;同時Q2公司單季度經營性現金流入8375萬元,首次實現了單季度經營性現金流轉正。我們認為公司在利潤水平及經營性現金流方面的改善主要源自於其規模效應的逐步體現:公司2020Q2行政費用率同比下降7.2pct,銷售費用率同比下降6.7pct。

◆維持“買入”評級

公司在上半年繼續受益於直播電商紅利,同時擔保服務、雲服務費等抽傭類產品滲透率的提升使得公司營收與GMV增速差距開始收窄。隨着用户數量與收入規模的增長,公司業務規模效應開始顯現,期間費用率的下降使得公司單季度虧損額開始收窄。由於公司單季度期間費用率改善超出我們預期,且規模效應開始顯現,我們上調公司2020-2022年歸母淨利潤預測為-5.04/-4.70/-3.25億元。維持“買入”評級。

◆風險提示:

公司線下門店產品推廣難度高於預期;微商城業務用户流失率提升;增值服務業務進展低於預期;競爭對手以低價策略爭奪市場。

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