煜盛文化(01859.HK)：綜+劇+中視頻乘風破浪，“文化+消費“內容服務集團進入快車道，給予“買入”評級，目標價3.42港元
機構：浙商證券
評級：買入
目標價：3.42港元
報告導讀
公司節目儲備豐富多元，並依託綜藝製作優勢進軍連續劇市場，2020年實現綜藝、連續劇收入貢獻1:1，產品結構改善帶動收入翻倍增長；公司蓄力擴展新媒體營銷、中視頻業務，發展前景值得期待。
投資要點
超預期因素：2020年3季度連續劇上線，產品結構豐富優化帶動收入翻倍，進軍新媒體內容營銷前景可期。市場認為電視綜藝節目製作發展面臨多方監管，波動大不確定性強，公司節目集中於電視綜藝缺乏新增長點，但我們認為：1）在內容媒體監管趨緊環境下，公司把控政策風險優勢突出，且嚴監管下演員成本下降有望改善利潤邊際；2）2020年公司耗時2年研製的電視劇《一念無間》等電視劇將於3季度陸續上線，業務結構將調整為綜藝：劇1:1，預計收入利潤翻倍增長；3）新媒體內容營銷增長迅猛，依託與京東等互聯網公司合作快速佈局電商直播，發展中視頻營銷，商業價值釋放值得期待。
超預期路徑：基於生活方式的內容服務集團進入成長快車道，綜藝業務穩定增長，連續劇蓄力爆發貢獻2020年收入翻倍，新媒體內容合作加速落地。憑藉出色的運營模式和商業閉環，公司：1）綜藝業務憑藉高效的工業化流程實現快速增長，商業模式賦能媒體平台及贊助商，模式穩定可複製；2）連續劇：相比綜藝收益更高，隨着2020年Q3《一念無間》等連續劇的逐步上線，業務結構調整有望帶來超預期增長；3）與供應鏈公司京喜達戰略合作，入局快速增長的新媒體電商及直播領域；佈局高商業價值的中視頻領域，是未來內容視頻的大勢所趨，“文化+消費”內容矩陣長期持續增長可期。
催化劑：《一念無間》等電視劇播出、京東合作持續推進、產業鏈併購落地?盈利預測及估值：預計2020-2022財年公司收入同比增長95.00%/40.00%/30.00%至9.27/12.98/16.88億元，歸母淨利潤為2.76/3.90/5.05億元，同比增長86.42%/41.55%/29.39%，對應PE估值11.66/8.24/6.37倍。我們預計公司節目儲備豐富，並積極豐富產品結構，2020年營業收入翻倍，估值20年18倍PE，給予目標價3.42港元，首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級。
風險提示：節目播出不達預期、戰略合作落地不達預期、監管風險。
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