中國重汽(03808.HK)：重卡行業高景氣，全年盈利有望超預期，維持“買入”評級，目標價31.6 港元
機構：天風證券
評級：買入
目標價：31.6 港元
今年以來，重卡行業表現遠超市場預期。1季度受疫情影響，行業需求受到壓制，Q1重卡銷量27萬輛，同比-16%。但2季度需求迅速回暖，Q2重卡銷量54萬輛，同比大增63%。整個上半年重卡行業銷量81萬輛，相比去年同期的66萬輛大幅增長24%，遠超市場預期。中國重汽作為行業龍頭之一，受益行業景氣。
分結構來看，物流重卡先回暖。今年Q1和Q2前期，物流重卡表現好於工程重卡，社會物流需求的回暖早於房地產和基建需求的恢復。從數據端來看，物流重卡的主要代表半掛牽引車Q1和Q2同比增速分別為5%和67%，均高於同期的行業總量增速。
工程重卡有望成為下半年的主要增長動力。從6月開始，工程重卡的代表車型——重卡底盤的同比增速為95%，超過了當月半掛牽引車的同比增速（50%），目前來看，隨着基建逆週期調節繼續發力，下半年工程重卡有望繼續向好，我們預計工程重卡是下半年行業總量增長的主要來源，而重汽的產品結構更偏向於工程重卡，因此能夠受益工程重卡的景氣向上，市佔率有望提升。
天然氣+汕德卡，產品結構向上，利潤率有望提升。今年上半年重汽天然氣重卡銷量市佔率迅速提升，市佔率從去年上半年的第3名躍升至第1名，2.2萬輛的銷量也比去年上半年同比增長了58%，增速遠超行業。同時重汽的高端重卡——汕德卡今年以來增長迅速，1-5月銷量就超過了去年全年銷量。伴隨高端產品佔比提升，利潤率有望隨之向上。控股股東上半年業績大幅增長。上半年中國重汽集團（重汽H的控股股東）銷售各類整車20.1萬輛，同比增長27%；實現彙總營業收入774億元，同比增長22%；利潤總額同比增長48.4%。重汽H作為中國重汽集團的主要收入和利潤來源之一，上半年淨利潤有望大幅增長。
全年重卡有望再創新高，明年行業銷量難以發生大幅下滑。我們預計今年全年重卡銷量有望達到140萬輛以上，我們認為國三淘汰透支效應不如市場預期那麼大，明後年重卡銷量依然有望維持在130萬輛以上。
投資建議：
重卡行業景氣度超預期，我們上調20-22年的歸母淨利潤預測至56.2億元、60.2億元和63.7億元（此前預期分別為40.8億元、45.4億元和49.6億元），給予20年14倍PE，對應目標價上調至31.6港元（此前目標價為16.2港元），維持“買入”評級。
風險提示：宏觀經濟不及預期，市佔率提升不及預期，海外疫情影響出口超預期。
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