永利澳門有限公司(01128.HK)：20年Q2業績雖遜預期，但短線復甦將優於同業，維持“增持”評級，目標價14.7港元
機構：中泰證券
評級：增持
目標價：14.7港元
20年Q2經調整EBITDA遜預期
永利澳門於2020年Q2錄得淨收入為2,100萬美元(同比下跌98.2%)；經調整EBITDA為虧損1.9億美元(同比由盈轉虧)，遜於我們預期，主要由於1)粵、澳兩地政府採取嚴格的出入境管制措施令訪澳旅客數目陷入冰封、2)集團期內錄得貴賓廳毛虧損達4,200萬美元。然而，集團貴賓廳轉碼數為23.2億美元(同比減少89.7%)，跑贏行業平均表現。我們相信粵、澳兩地局部通關初期對貴賓廳收入的刺激作用較大，賭場內的防疫措施(如社交距離或每張賭枱的人數限制)對貴賓廳業務影響較細，預計集團短期的復甦步伐會優於行業。
若賭收回復至19年Q4的40%水平可實現EBITDA盈虧平衡
集團目前每日營運開支減少至約150萬-200萬美元(不包括利息及資本開支)，管理層預計若日均賭收回復至去年第四季的40%(上一次業績會的指引為約45%)，將可錄得EBITDA的盈虧平衡。截至7月31日，集團持有現金及可動用的信貸融通共達25億美元，我們預測公司在零收入下能夠支撐33個月的營運。
短期受惠局部通關措施，但中期面對“上葡京”競爭壓力
由於粵、澳兩地已放寬了檢疫及隔離限制，而內地將於8月12日起恢復辦理內地其它省份居民除旅遊簽註以外的其它種類赴澳門簽註，相信短期會刺激持商務簽證為主的貴賓廳客人赴澳門意欲。我們預計廣東省個人遊簽證可能在8月下旬至9月重批，將令賭收温和復甦，而管理層亦對年內重啟個人遊簽證表示樂觀。不過，由於澳博控股(880HK)主打高端服務的旗艦項目“上葡京”預計在明年第一季可局部開業，我們認為對同樣主打高端服務的永利皇宮帶來客人的分流及競爭壓力。
下調目標價至14.7港元，維持“增持”評級
由於澳門能夠全面正常通關的時間較我們原先預期的日子延遲，以及集團遜於預期的業績，我們把20-22年經調整EBITDA預測分別下調-149.2%/-8.8%/-13.4%至-12.2億/73.3億/86.2億港元，目標價從16.0港元下調至14.7港元，相當於2021年13.5倍EV/EBITDA，維持“增持”評級。
風險提示：(一)簽證政策收緊；(二)疫情擴散風險；(三)賭場續牌風險
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