維亞生物(01873.HK)公告點評：收購朗華方案4個超預期彰顯信心，CFS和EFS協同強化，維持“買入”評級
機構：光大證券
評級：買入
◆事件：
公司發佈公告，公司計劃以現金25.6億元，收購朗華製藥80%股權。其中，朗華20年承諾淨利潤1.6億元，超預期。
◆點評：
收購朗華方案4個超預期，彰顯信心。本次收購相比於之前公告的信息，有4個方面超預期，充分彰顯公司信心：1）朗華20年承諾淨利潤上調至1.6億元，同比+75%，此前公告為1.4億元；2）本次計劃收購80%股權，此前公告為60%；3）公司計劃5年內推進朗華在A股上市；4）公司將推進朗華管理層的股權激勵計劃。朗華製藥是國內優秀的化藥CMO公司，現有廠房已經通過FDA的GMP現場檢查。雖然朗華總體估值從此前公告的26.8億元上調至32億元，但對應業績承諾也有所上調，表明公司質地優質。若收購80%股權成功，假設朗華製藥2021年利潤在2020年的1.6億基礎上增長20%，將增厚公司21年約1.5億利潤。
CFS和EFS協同強化，小CRO有大空間。目前，公司CFS業務已經涵蓋了靶點研究、化合物發現兩大環節，隨着客户管線推進，對公司CMO能力提出了需求，並且公司客户以Biotech為主，較容易導流。公司在中間銜接的CMC環節已經組建了團隊，預計收購化藥CMO後將有顯著協同效應。值得注意的是，服務能力的延伸也將強化公司投資能力，延伸公司的EFS業務覆蓋環節。更重要的是，由於其孵化的公司將由公司提供研發服務，公司EFS業務也將反哺CFS業務。依託EFS業務，後續CFS業務的服務能力將不斷強化，導流效率將不斷提高，公司有望持續突破成長天花板。
◆盈利預測與投資評級：公司作為全球領先的基於結構藥物發現服務商CFS+EFS佈局前瞻，業績將持續較高增長。假設朗華21年並表，我們維持20年淨利潤預測為3.8億元，上調21-22年淨利潤預測分別為7.2/10.1億元，考慮到公司配股增加股本，我們調整公司20-22年EPS預測為0.20/0.38/0.54元（原為0.27/0.39/0.56元），分別同比增長43%/89%/40%，對應20-22年PE為47/25/18倍，維持“買入”評級。
◆風險提示：疫情持續；藥企研發投入不及預期；競爭加劇；匯率波動。
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