中國建材(03323.HK)：資產整合，價值釋放繼續，維持“買入”評級，目標價15.88港元
機構：興業證券
評價：買入
目標價：15.88港元
投資要點
中國建材擬向天山股份出售其於中聯水泥、南方水泥、西南水泥及中材水泥的股權，代價為天山股份定向發行的股份，發行價格為每股13.38元；同時，天山股份擬於建議重組完成後進行新股配售。
我們點評如下：
本次擬注入的標的公司賬面淨資產約為668億元，經中國建材權益佔比調整後的賬面淨資產為595億元，“真實”ROE為33%，其中，南方水泥和中聯水泥盈利能力較為突出。我們對標的資產估價從1.2-1.9倍PB進行情景假設分析，結果顯示，天山股份定向中國建材增發的股本數量將在53.36-84.49億股區間內，交易完成後，中國建材在天山股份的持股佔比將在85.6%-89.7%區間，“新”天山股份將持有中聯水泥100%股權、南方水泥99.93%股權、西南水泥95.72%股權、中材水泥100%股權。
資產整合已經拉開序幕，中國建材的價值正在加速釋放。中國建材的礦山、土地已較早年收購價格有明顯升值，經過連續2年合計約230億元的謹慎撥備處理，我們有理由認為中國建材擬出售資產的公允價值較賬面值低估，且中國建材在港股市場的PB長期低於1倍，本次資產整合將是中國建材價值釋放的催化劑。本次交易完成後，中國建材的大部分水泥資產將在A股單獨上市，中國建材估值將錨定A股相關標的，其在港股長期低估值狀態有望得到修復。
從更長週期來看，我們認為中國建材的競爭力當刮目相看，公司長期價值仍被低估。中聯於魯豫市場正攜手山水和同力，南方水泥牽手海螺，合作遍地開花，泛北方市場，中國建材與金隅冀東共同合作解決西北電石渣亂象，南方&西南水泥又開展了大量產能置換，中國建材的資產質量和盈利能力在大幅提升。我們的DCF模型測算結果顯示，中國建材合理估值為1216億人民幣，現值低估了19%。此外，骨料正在開啟新的業務增長點，480億市值可期，這部分我們尚未考慮到估值模型中。
我們的觀點：我們暫維持2020-2022年歸母淨利分別為142億、168億和184億元的盈利預測不變，維持“買入”評級，本次資產整合加速中國建材估值修復，上調目標價至15.88港元。
風險提示：經濟惡化；協同破裂；原材料價格大幅波動；海外業務風險。
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