藥明生物(02269.HK)：疫情短期負面影響已過，業績超預期，維持“增持”評級
機構：國泰君安
評級：增持
本報告導讀：
公司發佈 2020 年中報正面盈利預告，疫情影響有限，業績超預期。積極開展疫苗CDMO等新興業務，盈利能力有望進一步提升，維持公司增持評級。
摘要：
維持“增持”評級。公司發佈 2020年中報正面盈利預告，預期2020年 H1 歸母淨利潤同比增長 58%以上。疫情負面影響有限，業績增長超預期。維持2020-2022年EPS預測為 1.04/1.51/2.05元。因業績超預期，參考行業可比公司估值，上調 2020年目標 PE 至 159.5X，對應目標價為184.1港幣（+33.6港幣） 。維持增持評級。
疫情短期影響已過，競爭優勢藉機有望擴大。受疫情影響，2020Q1有一個月的運營損失， 並帶來商業化生產CMO收入推遲，預計有 1億美元收入從 2020 年推遲到 2021 年。目前疫情影響逐步消除，非新冠項目維持穩健增長趨勢，新生產基地產能爬坡帶來產能利用率提升，疊加投資等一次性收益，驅動公司業績超預期。新冠相關項目爆發，利於公司擴大競爭優勢。於6月18日公司投資者開放日，管理層表示已簽署 11 個新冠中和抗體項目，競標成功率約 70%，體現公司競爭力；另外有27個新冠項目在洽談，包括4 個新冠疫苗項目，與同行對比，處於領先地位。預計 2020 年新冠項目收入超 8000 萬美元，2021年預估達1.5億美元。
公司目前正處於迭代蜕變階段，未來有望成為全球生物藥賦能平台。1）積極擴大產能，實現全球供應鏈，預計到2022年，公司產能將超28萬升，地域跨越北美、歐洲、中國等國家地區；2）疫苗和新型藥物範式業務備受期待，公司為全球第一家疫苗商業化 CMO 供應商，且有多個新冠疫苗項目在洽談；3）投資生物藥和上下游公司，深化全產業鏈佈局，助力降低抗體研發生產成本。藥明生物在品牌、產品類別、產品質量、工藝、生產成本、供應鏈等競爭要素方面積累的優勢有望逐漸加大，形成以最低的成本生產出質量最好的產品的核心競爭力。
催化劑：商業化生產訂單落地，全球產業鏈佈局推進。
風險提示：關鍵客户流失的風險；政策變化的風險；新冠疫情影響超預期；外匯波動的風險。
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