《業績前瞻》券商料恆生(00011.HK)中期經調整盈利跌16%至37% 聚焦派息
恆生銀行(00011.HK)將於下周一(8月3日)公布中期業績，新冠疫情蔓延經濟活動，料集團收入及信貸撥備承壓，淨息差收窄亦會拖累淨利息收入表現，本網綜合三間券商預測料恆生今年上半年經調整盈利(已就額外一級資本票據相關扣減作調整之盈利)介乎84.07億元至112.22億元，較2019年同期133.47億元，按年跌16%至37%。
綜合3間券商預測料恆生銀行今年上半年淨利息收入預測介乎148.57億元至153.48億元，按年跌3.2%至6.3%。由於環球銀行匯控(00005.HK)及渣打(02888.HK)已宣布暫停派息，市場關注本港銀行中期派息情況，本網綜合3間測料恆生銀行今年每股中期息預測介1.708元至2.2元，較2019年同期2.8元按年跌21.4%至39%。
【料盈利倒退 將聚焦派息】
摩根士丹利估計恆生銀行今年上半年淨利息收入按年跌6%至148.57億元，主要受淨息差收窄至1.88%所拖累(對比2019年上半年及下半年各2.1%及2.11%)及貸款增長影響，料今年上半年總體非利息收入錄61.55億元按年跌6%(按半年升31%)，因全球經活動走弱，料期內信貸損失變動及其他減值提撥按年升2.24倍至16.52億元，估計今年上半年除稅前溢利按年倒退17%至131.88億元，料恆生今年上半年經調整純利按年下滑16.9%至110.89億元，料每股中期息按年跌21%至2.2元。該行料恆生中期成本效益比率為29.2%、而普通股權一級資本比率可升至16.6%。
高盛料恆生今年上半年經調整純利按年跌37%、估計中期淨利息收入按年跌5.7%、料貸款按年增長3.7%、估手續費收入按年跌7.6%、料撥備前經營利潤(PPoP)按年下滑21.4%。
而瑞銀估計料恆生銀行中期收入及信貸撥備承壓，淨息差收窄亦會拖累淨利息收入表現，估恆生上半年經調整純利按年走低16%至112.22億元、料淨利息收入跌3.2%，估計淨息差降至2.04%，成本效益比率30.2%，料不良貸款比率0.25%(對比2019年上半年0.11%)，料每股中期息按年跌21%至2.2元。
券商│今年上半年經調整盈利預測(港元)│按年變幅
瑞銀│112.22億元│-16%
摩根士丹利│110.89億元│-16.9%
高盛│84.07億元│-37%
按恆生銀行2019年上半年經調整純利133.47億元計
--------------------------
綜合3間券商預測料恆生銀行今年上半年淨利息收入預測介乎148.57億元至153.48億元，按年跌3.2%至6.3%。
券商│今年上半年淨利息收入(港元)│按年變幅
瑞銀│153.48億元│-3.2%
高盛│149.5億元│-5.7%
摩根士丹利│148.57億元│-6.3%
按恆生銀行2019年上半年淨利息收入158.53億元計
--------------------------
此外，本網綜合3間測料恆生銀行今年每股中期息預測介1.708元至2.2元，較2019年同期2.8元按年跌21.4%至39%。
券商│今年每股中期息預測(港元)│按年變幅
瑞銀│2.2元│-21.4%
摩根士丹利│2.2元│-21.4%
高盛│1.708元│-39%
按恆生銀行2019年上半年每股派息2.8元計
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