高盛:料香港地產股中期基本純利跌4至74% 首選長實(1113.HK)及ESR(1821.HK)
高盛發表行業報告稱,受新型肺炎疫情暴發宏觀環境不確定性增加,預期香港地產股整體季度經營數據將相對艱難,估計該行所覆蓋的地產公司,上半年基本純利將按年下跌4至74%,行業首選續為長實(1113.HK)及ESR(1821.HK),均予其“買入”評級,及列入“確信買入”名單,其中長實目標價為61.5港元;同時予希慎(0014.HK)、冠君產業信託(2778.HK)及置富產業信託(0778.HK)“沽售”評級。
高盛認為,宏觀不確定性加劇可能導致樓市進入另一個震盪期,預計地產股的風險溢價在短期內將保持較高水平。該行原預期本港各類物業的價格或租金將較比去年中高峯時下降10%至30%,惟目前正在修訂其預測,以反映零售和酒店市場進一步疲軟,以及部分公司的特定變化。
該行續指,恆隆地產(0101.HK)、希慎、太古地產(1972.HK)及嘉裏建設(0683.HK)在過去一個月相繼發盈警,而大部份與投資物業金錄得重估虧損以及酒店業務有關;至於每股派息方面,估計有固定派息比率的公司亦會較以往波動,反而傳統地產股派息則料更穩定。
該行又指,除派息政策外,認為投資者將更關注投資物業估值的變化、零售租金減免計劃,以及在家辦公的趨勢和宏觀不確定性加劇對寫字樓需求前景的影響。
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