天工國際(00826.HK)：高成長的全球高端特鋼龍頭，給予“增持”評級
機構：國泰君安
評級：增持
本報告導讀：
公司通過直銷戰略深度挖掘客户價值，通過粉末冶金優化產品結構實現進口替代，全球化佈局帶來的成本下降奠定公司成長基礎，公司業績成長性或超出市場預期。
摘要：
首次覆蓋，給予“增持”評級。公司為全球高端特鋼龍頭，競爭優勢明顯，我們預測公司2020-2022年EPS分別為0.20/0.25/0.30元，參考同類公司，給予公司2020年PB2.6倍進行估值，對應目標價3.44港幣。首次覆蓋，給予“增持”評級。
公司競爭優勢明顯，護城河深厚。公司通過行業領先的研發力、產品力及服務力打造出獨一無二的競爭優勢，擁有深厚的產品技術壁壘、客户認證壁壘及銷售渠道壁壘。目前公司核心產品高速鋼全球市佔率居首，模具鋼市佔率全球第二，行業整體競爭格局良好。我們認為公司憑藉突出的競爭優勢及寬厚的競爭壁壘，其市佔率有望持續提升，並伴隨行業需求的持續增長而不斷成長。
公司業績增長可期，成長性將超市場預期。市場認為公司與上下游經濟密切相關，盈利受到經濟週期影響。而我們認為，公司產品結構升級、直銷佔比提升提高公司毛利率，海外建廠拓展了公司產量的上限，公司未來將持續成長。目前公司粉末冶金項目已經正式投產，粉末冶金的提高可主動淘汰技術含量低、競爭激烈的低端品，切換為高價值產品，優化產品結構，提升毛利率；直銷戰略使公司與下游客户深度綁定，其單個客户盈利規模持續擴張，產品銷量及毛利率穩步增長；全球化佈局打開公司產能上限，且公司能夠更好地滿足國外的需求和應對中美貿易衝突帶來的影響不確定性，而從海外採購原材料的比例上升將使得公司生產成本逐步下降。此外，我國高端特鋼佔比仍然較低，特鋼行業未來成長空間廣闊，隨着公司持續的研發投入，公司產品將逐漸替代進口，公司將展示出超出市場預期的成長性。
催化劑：公司業績持續高增長。
風險提示：製造業投資大幅下行；泰國產線投產不及預期。
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