微盟集團(02013.HK)：私域電商SaaS龍頭，智慧零售、餐飲望超預期，給予“買入”評級
機構：浙商證券
評級：買入
報告導讀
微盟位處私域流量優質賽道，已成為電商SaaS龍頭之一，TAM持續抬升，預計垂直場景SaaS中智慧零售及餐飲有望爆發增長，超市場預期。
投資要點
投資邏輯：受益私域流量及SaaS優質賽道紅利，高增長有望持續；龍頭TAM（totaladdressablemarket）持續抬升，估值中樞有望提升
優質行業賽道，龍頭充分受益，高增長持續：1）中心化電商陷發展瓶頸，高效率和數字化趨勢使商户轉向日益崛起的私域流量，微信小程序2019年GMV同增160%，是私域主要陣地；2）國內SaaS進入高速發展期，2019年行業增速42%。其中去中心化電商SaaS發展空間廣闊，微盟已成為私域電商SaaS龍頭之一，市佔率超過10%，受益行業增長紅利，營收未來三年CAGR約50%。
TAM（業務潛在空間）持續抬升，估值中樞有望提升：電商SaaS產品和銷售模式及經驗有望帶來產品的拓展和業務邊界的擴張，智慧零售和餐飲產品高速增長。
超預期點：智慧零售、智慧餐飲等垂直場景SaaS產品有望在未來2年爆發增長，增速超100%，超市場預期
1）零售和餐飲頭部商户不缺流量，有意沉澱自有流量提高運營效率，去中心化需求顯著；2）公司精準定位需求，打磨產品後，優先發展頭部客户，再逐級輻射腰部，效果卓羣；3）未來2-3年，頭部客户為ARPU快速提高、品牌建立帶來較大貢獻，預計增速超100%，帶動SaaS整體營收維持40-45%高速增長。
未來發展路徑：“SaaS+精準營銷”雙核驅動，對標海外Shopify
Shopify是全球領先電商SaaS服務商，“SaaS+增值服務”雙核驅動；微盟同屬私域電商服務商龍頭，目前規模及增速接近2013-14年的Shopify，市值僅為其1/35，結合國內去中心化電商SaaS市場高速增長及低滲透率，有望對標。
盈利預測及估值
預計公司2020-2022年營收23.6/34.8/48.5億元，同增64.3%/47.4%/39.4%，歸母淨利-0.5/3.2/7.3億元，EPS為-0.02/0.14/0.33元。我們採用分部估值法，對標國外相關公司，給予21年公司SaaS業務20xP/S估值，精準營銷20xP/E估值，給予目標價CNY13.82元，對應HKD15.33元，“買入”評級。
風險提示：SaaS發展不及預期、精準營銷業務發展不及預期。
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