《大行報告》美銀證券:專家料內地水泥價再跌空間有限 料8月下旬復甦
美銀證券發表報告表示,近期與內地「數字水泥」及卓創等舉行會議,水泥行業專家料近期因雨災關係會令行業需求放緩,但隨著內地大型基建推動下,內地基建需求佔水泥需求會升至50%佔比,可抵銷農村地區疲弱的需求。
該行估計,隨著水泥行業需求回升,料今年銷量按年跌幅收窄至2至3%;專家估計在華東及華南地區,水泥價格再下行空間有限,並料8月下旬水泥價格將會復甦。
美銀證券表示,內地水泥行業需求收縮是中期威脅因素,今年上半年內地新增產能為1,400萬噸,預計下半年還將再增產1,500萬至2,000萬噸。在扣除產能置換,行業到2020年淨增加量將達到2,000萬噸。從2021年起,儘管新產能將更加集中在廣西,但仍在增長的需求每年可以很好地吸收2至3條生產線,而且在排放配額的不足,會迫使地方政府限制新增產能的總量。在地方和中央政府的干預下,新產能將處於可控範圍內,但從中期來看,需求將是最大的不確定性。
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