植耀輝: 港股維持上落市 金蝶(00268.HK)押注雲業務有待觀察
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱，本地疫情醞釀爆發第三波，中美關係仍受到關注；同時投資者亦觀望美股業績表現，令恆指昨日有所回落。不過，在「資金市」下，暫仍難言大市炒作已完。而且隔晚(14日)美股又憧憬藥廠研發疫苗有良好進展而有所反彈，故短期仍會維持上落市格局。
當然，近期個別板塊仍見炒作，遊戲相關股份便是其中之一。該板塊上周被炒起有不少原因，但大分因素可能是與早前應用分析平台Sensor Tower統計資料顯示，國內30家手游發行商上月全球收入超16.5億美元有關；另外，踏入7月份傳統暑假旺季，各大遊戲商亦摩拳擦掌，推出更多重磅新作，而疫情見反彈亦令「宅經濟」股份受到追捧。不過行業有另一消息亦值得分享，就是騰訊(00700.HK)有意收購或私有化樂遊科技(01089.HK)。
騰訊近年在遊戲市場動作多多不是新鮮事，反而焦點落入樂遊身上。樂遊主要業務為遊戲開發及發行，而最大賣點就是自家開發及發行之網絡遊戲Warframe。根據公司資料，該遊戲自2013年3月推出後一直為全球最受歡迎之免費遊戲，截至去年底之註冊用戶人數達5,746.5萬。由於擁有相當高「人氣」，近年樂遊多次成為被收購對象，在騰訊之前便有創夢天地(01119.HK)及於深交所上市之浙江世紀華通(002602.SZ)曾進行洽購。不過或者是「皇帝女唔憂嫁」，亦可能是出價未滿意關係而一直未見成事。事實上，Sony亦對樂遊虎視眈眈，騰訊過去收購出手亦較「鬆」，且看今次樂遊會否找到「真愛」!至於樂遊現價是否值得吸納，則要視乎最終出價而定。所以暫時還是抱觀望態度為佳。
除了遊戲板塊外，軟件股亦受投資者熱烈追捧，不少股份年初至今動輒倍升，金蝶(00268.HK)便是其中之一。不過，該公司上周宣布上半年業績盈轉虧，便令其股價連續兩個交易日下跌。看其盈警相關通告，除了受疫情拖累，集團亦指是與「戰略規劃進行業務模式調整」有關。金蝶現時業務重心為ERP，亦即企業資源計劃(Enterprise Resource Planning)。然而集團近年已表明會轉型為一雲服務供應商，目標是2020年雲業務佔集團總營收60%。
事實上，近年金蝶業績表現並不算十分理想，去年上半年如撇除其他收入(包括增值稅退還及租金收入等)，更已錄得經營虧損。不過，作為集團未來關鍵業務，雲業務增速始終較強勁，去年同比增長便達到54.7%，今年上半年增速稍為放慢，但亦有40%至50%增長。只是相關業務現時仍處於虧損狀況，而且由於須繼續加大研發及推廣，相信金蝶未來一段時間仍會受此影響而令盈利狀況變得不穩定。
儘管如此，其股價去向之關鍵可能仍是北水──周一(13/7)金蝶股價一度急跌近11.6%，收市跌幅不足3%，同日金蝶港股通(滬)成交額7.93億元，佔當日總成交52%以上，而淨買入則達4.46億元。始終在資金市下，估值是否合理可能又是另一回事了。
(筆者為證監會持牌人，並未持有相關股份)~
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