興業證券料中芯(00981.HK)或可下月在內地科創板上市 令H股估值達市賬率3倍
興業證券發表報告表示,按內地當前科創板半導體估值水平,料或可驅動中芯國際(00981.HK)H股估值達市賬率3倍。於6月19日公司創下科創板遞表18天後「過會」的最快記錄,或有機會在7月份上市交易。
該行指,截止2020年6月,內地科創板共有14家半導體公司,整體市賬率與市銷率中位數各為8.8倍及37.5倍,其中晶圓代工廠華潤微(688396.SH)的的市賬率/市銷率估值各達5倍及8.2倍。參考在港股/科創板同時掛牌的中國通號,港股估值對照科創板約5成折價;該行根據估值水平與折價幅度綜合判斷,中芯在科創上市後,其H股估值或在市賬率3倍至5倍區間。自2018年10月至2020年6月,公司的滬深港通持股佔比提升15百分點至39%,南向資金逐步主導定價權。
興業證券指,中芯國際產能爬坡與良率提升符合此前預期,先進制程折舊常態化或影響盈利能力,但國產化需求對利用率形成有力支撐。基於當前利用率與大基金對中芯南方的注資,該行提升對中芯在今明兩年的淨資產預測到每股1.28美元及1.33美元。結合科創板估值與港股折價幅度,判斷公司在科創上市後能達到市賬率3倍估值;按該行對中芯2021年的淨資產預測,提升對其港股目標價至30.92元,維持「審慎增持」評級。
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