國信證券料中芯(00981.HK)科創板上市後市賬率可追同業 料港股亦水漲船高
中芯國際(00981.HK)早前公告,科創板股票上市委員會通過公司發行人民幣股份的申請,國信證券發表報告表示,由於中芯即將登陸科創板,要對標科創板的華潤微電子(688396.SH)估值(預測市賬率為5倍)。另外,中芯的技術實力和規模都超過華潤微,按照市賬率5倍估值是非常合理的。由於投資中芯國際A/H的投資人重疊度很高,所以估計到時候中芯國際的A/H估值會趨同,料中芯港股的估值向科創板市賬率5倍估值看齊。
該行上調中芯國際港股估值及目標價,認為公司合理市賬率估值範圍5至6倍(原為2.5倍至2.6倍),對應46至48港元(原23至24港元),維持業績預測和「買入」評級。該行指,作為半導體代工的技術跟隨著,技術節點突破是關鍵,應該先看中芯的技術,再看收入,最後才是利潤,預計中芯2020至2022年收入分別為36.39億美元、41.89億美元及48.13億美元,增速各為16.8%、15.1%及14.9%,料2020年至2022年利潤分別為1.92億美元、2.17億美元及2.36億美元,按年跌18.1%、升13.3%及升8.8%。
就短期中芯國際估值方面,國信證券認為第一階段,對標全球半導體代工廠估值,按照行業估值邏輯,毛利率越高,市賬率越高,目前26%的毛利率對應其市賬率估值在2.6倍。第二階段,等中芯上內地科創板後,對標科創板的華潤微電子(半導體代工廠)市賬率為5倍。
第三階段為A/H估值趨同,中芯國際港股估值向科創板看齊。由於內資南下買中芯國際持股比例接近40%,再加上大股東持股,接近80%是內資持股。可以說中芯目前是內資定價,所以,科創板之後A/H定價將會趨同,港股股價會 受益,料其港股預測市賬率估值從2.6倍向5倍提升。(wl/u) ~
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