舜宇光學科技（02382.HK）公司公告點評 ：短期擾動不改光學賽道升級趨勢，維持“優於大市”評級
機構：海通證券
評級：優於大市
投資要點：
公司公告2020年5月出貨量：2020年5月，公司手機鏡頭出貨量9748萬顆，同比下降8.6%，環比下降12.3%；公司車載鏡頭出貨量255萬顆，同比下降35.0%，環比增長21.4%；手機攝像模組出貨量4774萬顆，同比增長20.3%，環比增長9.0%。
2020年1-5月累積出貨量：2020年1-5月，公司手機鏡頭出貨量3.2億顆，同比增長17%；公司車載鏡頭出貨量1683萬顆，同比下降8%；手機攝像模組出貨量2.2顆，同比增長31%。
疫情影響鏡頭出貨：公司手機鏡頭及車載鏡頭出貨量表現不佳，主要源於海外疫情影響智能手機及汽車需求。車載鏡頭5月出貨量環比上升21.4%，主要源於客户端出貨逐步恢復。手機攝像模組出貨量同比上升20.3%，主要源於市場份額提升。
短期擾動不改光學賽道升級趨勢：1）我們預計在單機攝像頭數量增長的帶動下，20年智能手機市場攝像頭總需求顆數仍會有一定增長；2）我們認為智能手機攝像頭仍會在拍照、視頻、3D感應等領域持續升級，具體體現在：1）攝像頭數量持續增加；2）規格提升，超高像素、大像面、超大廣角、大光圈、長焦、視頻鏡頭等應用，以及前置鏡頭的小型化、超薄等；3）勻光片、衍射光學元件、準直鏡頭等新興零部件的應用。
盈利預測與投資建議：我們預計2020-2022年實現歸母淨利潤48.4、60.4和73.4億元，同比增速21%、25%和21%；每股收益4.41、5.51和6.69元。考慮到鏡頭利潤貢獻佔比顯著提升，經營穩定性和成長性更強，及公司光學零件和光電產品盈利能力差異較大，我們按PE進行估值，給予2020年25-28XPE，對應合理價值區間110.25-123.48元/股，按照1港元=0.90元人民幣估算，對應合理價值區間122.50-137.20港元/股，維持優於大市評級。
風險提示：智能手機產銷下滑，Tof等應用推進不及預期。
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