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《大行報告》高盛升中芯(00981.HK)目標價至23元 指不計華為訂單 長線前景仍鞏固
阿思達克 06-16 12:13
高盛發表報告表示,該行近月透過半導體的供應鏈渠道了解後,重新調整對中芯國際(00981.HK)旗下客戶組合假預,包括評估其短期及長期發展影響,重申對中芯「確信買入」名單,維持「買入」評級,未來12個月目標價由22元上調23元,此相當預測市賬率2.1倍,對其估值預測延伸至2022年。

該行指最新對中芯預測模型,已假設來自華為旗下海思半導體於今年第四季業務為零收入,及對公司長期發展維持建設性的看法,因料中芯旗下先進技術應用於收入佔比,可由今年首季僅1%,可在2021年及2022年恢復各至15%及77%(已假設損失華為訂單因素),可受惠旗下紫光展銳貢獻,及受惠於應用在FPGA(現場可編程式陣列)、特殊應用集成電路、數位信號處理供應商應用12/14奈米技術應用,料中芯至2025年半導體總體有效市場(total available market, TAM)的單位需求會大於華為需求最少3倍,而內地本地客戶包括上海韋爾半導體、北京兆易創新、中興微電子等。

高盛估計,中芯長線可維持產能增長計劃,料2020年至2025年資本開支複合增長率6%。該行料中芯旗下華為收入佔比約19%,原先估計來自華為先進技術12/14奈米技術應用佔比各31%及69%,但該行最新預測今年第四季起來自華為訂單為零,並相信其他客戶訂單可逐步抵銷相關影響,料至2022年第四季其他客戶訂單將可完全抵銷華為的影響。該行亦下調對中芯2020年至2022年純利預測各8%、39%及15%。(wl/u)

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