港股影視娛樂股普漲！院線正式重啟樂觀可期
6月5日，在港股市場上，影視娛樂股呈現普漲之勢，中國創意數碼領漲，貓眼娛樂大漲7%，IMAX China漲5%，歡喜傳媒、傳遞娛樂、阿里影業等個股紛紛跟漲。
來源於：富途牛牛
而這一漲勢背後的邏輯主要是在於：隨着疫情防控步入常態化，人們線下生活節奏逐步恢復到正常水平，業內對電影行業的復工復產有所期待。
根據中國電影家協會的數據顯示，2020年第一季度全國電影票房為22.38億元，同比下降88%。其中，2000座以上規模影院票房同比下降87.7%；500-2000座規模影院票房同比下降88%;500座一下規模影院票房同比下降91.3%，受疫情影響程度最為嚴重。
但隨着疫情趨於平穩，國家相關部門也正在積極組織片源，製作影片硬盤及密鑰，並適時安排上映檔期。其中，部分省份將制定影院開業工作導則、經營指導意見等，同時強化政策引導和對電影院的資金扶持。
“影院正式恢復放映，需要一個重新起跑的時間，6月份或進入正式恢復放映的階段。”——上海電影家協會主席任仲倫
齊榮證券認為，應把政策扶持放在影院復產的重要位置，經過分析認為電影市場回暖分為四個階段：1.政策支持;2.影院正常營業;3.大片定檔，最後才能看單熒幕產出。如若相關政策能夠給予員工社保、電影專項基金，以及房租方面的減免，對於電影公司而言，將會是重要利好，但最終能否帶動羣眾的觀影熱情，還是要看大片何時定檔。從一個長邏輯來看，如若拿業內普遍的衡量標準——票房增速必須要超過銀幕數量增速。
銀河證券指出，目前傳媒行業PE（TTM）約為37.53左右，處於歷史較低水平，伴隨着行業數據的回暖，目前的估值水平頗具吸引力。其中，隨着疫情逐漸好轉，影視行業復產復工工作有序推進，後續相關扶持政策將陸續出台落地，行業有望逐漸回暖。此外，疫情期間大量影視公司停業註銷，行業集中度有望持續提升。建議關注內容儲備豐富和內容質量較高的影視龍頭公司。
開源證券指出，影院復業後,電影行業票房將逐步迎來複蘇,加之財政部及税務總局免徵增值税的政策紅利,院線公司電影放映票房及收入或迎來修復。此外,財政部及國家電影局給予免徵國家電影事業發展專項資金政策支持,各商業地產公司給予減免租金支持,與影院守望相助,各院線公司2020年營業成本、營業税金及附加等或有所下降,從而帶來毛利率及淨利率的提升。
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