廣發證券:中國飛鶴(6186.HK)渠道健全管理高效 首予“買入”評級
廣發證券發佈報告稱,預計中國飛鶴(6186.HK)2020-2022年業績分別為0.56元/股、0.69元/股、0.88元/股,也預計公司配方奶粉增長穩定,市場佔有率繼續提高,2020-2022年EPS分別為0.56、0.69和0.88元/股,當前價格對應2020-2022年PE為22.49、18.22和14.33倍。參照可比公司估值,考慮公司奶粉市場龍頭地位,該行給予公司2020年26倍PE,對應合理價值為15.91港元/股,首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級。
該行表示,根據中國飛鶴全球發售文件引用弗若斯特沙利文數據,內地嬰幼兒配方奶粉市場的零售銷量從2014至2018年複合增長率的8.4%下降至19至23年(預計)的3.8%,2019-2023年(預計)市場零售價值的複合增長率為6.9%。
市場增速放緩主要由於出生率下降,銷售價值增長快於銷售量增長主要由於高端產品需求增加。2019年內地CR5為42%,由於規模和渠道優勢,該行預計,國產奶粉龍頭企業市場份額有望繼續提高。
中國飛鶴奶粉競爭力強,渠道網絡健全管理高效。中國飛鶴在黑龍江鬆嫩流域的乳源地建廠,以鮮奶為原料進行生產,採取濕混法工藝生產,產品具有較強市場競爭力。公司通過經銷商、零售商及線上電商平台三大渠道建立起強大的覆蓋全國的銷售管理網絡,並對經銷商採取高效的單層管理模式提高運營效率,同時公司前瞻性佈局母嬰渠道,積極推動線下互動提高產品滲透率。

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