中國有贊(08083.HK)：立足私域加碼直播，成長加速驚喜連連，維持“買入”評級，目標價1.1港元
機構：國盛證券
評級：買入
目標價：1.1港元
中國有贊2020Q1收入超預期，虧損改善。中國有贊2020Q1實現總收入約3.73億元，同比增速49%超過我們預期。其中，包含年費、插件費、雲服務的SaaS收入達2.13億元，同比增長84%；包含有贊擔保、有贊分銷、有贊精選等的延伸服務收入達5200萬元，同比增長57%；交易費收入約9800萬元，同比增長26%；其他收入約1100萬元，同比有所減少。
公司2020Q1毛利率由去年同期48%提升至58%，主要得益於SaaS及延伸服務規模擴張、規模效應帶來該業務毛利率由72%提升至78%。公司加強銷售團隊帶來銷售費用率略有上升、但行政費用率大幅改善；公司2020Q1歸屬母公司虧損約7500萬元，虧損率較去年同期顯著縮窄。
業務驚喜連連，變現模式優化。2020Q1有贊付費商家數和GMV增長亮眼。公司存量付費商家達9.12萬個，環比增長8900萬遠超我們預期；其中新增付費商家1.4萬個，疫情衝擊或對商家擁抱私域業態的拉動顯著。有贊商家季度GMV達208億，同比增長119%；我們估計微信和快手均有顯著貢獻。
增值服務是電商SaaS產品的重要盈利來源。本季有贊SaaS收入佔比由去年同期46%增至57%，其中新增的雲服務費有可觀貢獻；延伸服務收入佔比由去年同期13%增至14%，與商家GMV增長和延伸服務滲透率提升有關。包含雲服務費和延伸服務等的增值服務貢獻增加，體現有贊變現模式優化。
意向攜手愛逛，加碼私域直播。同時，有贊披露與關聯公司愛逛網絡就認購後者10%股權的意向訂立諒解備忘錄。愛逛是基於微信生態的小程序電商平台，入駐商家通過直播和短視頻向消費者帶貨，店鋪後台與有贊打通。
有贊具有產品力強勁、增值服務完善、多平台對接等優勢，愛逛也是有贊對接的諸多平台之一。隨着私域電商和直播帶貨的普及，不少商家也嘗試通過愛逛開播：根據愛逛數據，3月格力電器單場直播銷售額近百萬，阿芙精油單場直播轉化率達28%；4月博洋家紡愛逛首播成交突破1500萬。有贊若攜手愛逛，或有望進一步享受私域業態和直播電商紅利。
目標價1.1港幣，重申“買入”評級。我們預計中國有贊2020-2023年收入約20.1/30.5/40.9/50.2億元，實現淨利約-3.0/-2.5/-1.1/1.5億元。基於10x2021EP/S，我們維持中國有贊1.1港幣目標價，重申“買入”評級。
風險提示：私域平台帶貨規模不及預期，微信小程序等官方渠道競爭超預期，付費商家數和商家成交額增長不及預期，商家續約率改善不及預期。
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