東陽光藥(01558.HK)：可威持續增長，產品結構升級值得期待，維持“買入”評級，目標價40.0港元
機構：興業證券
評級：買入
目標價：40.0港元
投資要點
一季度可威繼續增長，院外渠道貢獻提升：公司2020Q1實現營業收入20.11億元人民幣（下同），同比增長5.57%；歸母淨利潤（不考慮可轉債影響）8.75億元，同比增長9.29%。一季度可威的銷售仍然維持了增長。從產品劑型來看，膠囊劑增長更快，在可威總收入中的佔比有所上升。從銷售渠道來看，在疫情影響下，人口流動性降低，醫院端收入佔比下降，而藥店、互聯網渠道的銷售佔比顯著提升，達到40%以上，這也與公司積極開拓院外銷售渠道有關。整體來看，銷售渠道的多元化仍然是公司堅定執行的發展策略，未來新渠道開拓的成效將逐步顯現。
積極擴充產品管線，結構優化可期：1月底國內疫情爆發以後，政府部門迅速採取了應對措施，通過切斷傳播途徑的方式來控制疫情的發展，取得了顯著成效。在傳播途徑被切斷的情況下，流感病毒的傳播也得到了控制。若未來一段時間疫情防控措施仍然持續，我們預計今年流感的發病率將較往年降低，抗流感藥物終端需求也將下降。國內若干奧司他韋仿製藥即將上市，或對市場格局產生影響，但考慮到顆粒劑是公司的獨家劑型，且公司在生產成本、產能、品牌知名度、銷售渠道等方面具備優勢，預計仿製藥上市對可威顆粒劑的影響有限。在新產品方面，抗丙肝藥物、胰島素以及化學仿製藥的研發都穩步推進，預計這一兩年將有較多產品上市，優化公司產品結構。此外，我們預計公司未來與研究院仍有多層次多種方式的合作，豐富管線同時貢獻一定業績增量。
盈利預測與估值：綜合考慮疫情對公司產品銷售的影響以及一季度業績的情況，我們下調2020-2022年預測收入至63.31、70.24和75.29億元，同比增長1.7%、10.9%、7.2%，下調幅度分別為21.2%、23.6%、25.8%；下調2020-2022年預測歸母淨利潤（考慮可轉換債利息的影響）至19.39、21.11和22.60億元，同比增長1.0%、8.9%、7.1%，下調幅度分別為21.6%、25.8%、28.5%。下調目標價至40.0港元，對應2020-2022年分別為9.09、8.40、7.89倍市盈率，維持“買入”評級。
風險提示：疫情影響超預期，市場競爭加劇，新產品銷售不達預期，流感發病率下降超預期。
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