香港交易所(00388.HK)：IPO和滬深港通推動主營業務增長，投資虧損拖累業績，維持“買入”評級，目標價272.89港元
機構：興業證券
評級：買入
目標價：272.89港元
投資要點
我們的觀點：在中國內地和中國香港兩地互聯互通機制不斷完善背景下，港交所將持續發揮其"立足中國、連接全球"的金融橋頭堡作用。我們維持公司"買入"評級及目標價 272.89港元。2020-2022 年，公司目標價對應PE水平分別為37.0、31.2和27.0倍，對應PB 水平分別為 7.5、7.3和7.1倍。公司目標價較現價有約10.8%的升幅，建議投資者關注。
營收和淨利同比雙雙下降，但環比仍有所上升：公司 2020Q1實現營業收入40.1億港元，同比下降7%，環比上升7%；歸屬股東淨利潤22.6億港元，同比下降13%，環比上升 14%；基本每股盈利1.8港元，同比下降14%。公司主營業務同比增長 19%，主要系 2020 年一季度港股市場交投活躍及滬深港通保持高速增長，帶動交易及結算費增加；但投資收益受市場波動影響，由2019Q1 的收益 8.8億港元轉虧為損失4700萬港元，拖累整體業績。
IPO數量保持全球第一：2020Q1，港股市場IPO 數量 39家，仍然居全球首位；首發募資額144億港元，同比降低32%，位列全球第四。隨着港交所持續推進上市制度改革，疊加中資企業赴美上市受到越來越嚴格的審核以及 H 股“全流通”全面落地推開等因素，預計將有更多中概股迴歸港股市場，以及更多優質中資企業選擇赴港IPO。
滬深港通雙向流通量強勁增長：港交所滬深港通相關收入達 4.04億港元，同比增長 74%，創季度新高。北向交易平均每日成交金額達人民幣 780億元（較2019Q2的紀錄增加了 57%） ，南向交易平均每日成交金額達216億元（較 2018Q1 的紀錄增加了 10%） 。滬深港通的強勁增長是公司現貨分部收入增長高於市場成交額增長的主要原因之一。
風險提示：滬港股通交易增長不及預期；市場交易量萎縮；疫情對各項業務造成的負面影響
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