永利澳門(01128.HK):1季度受疫情影響,澳門入境限制措施出現放寬跡象,維持“持有”評級,目標價17.2 港元
機構:廣發證券
評級:持有
目標價:17.2 港元
核心觀點
1 季度業績受到疫情負面影響:20Q1 公司實現 GGR 5.43 億美元,同比下滑 62.8%。其中,貴賓業務 GGR 為 2.62 億美元,同比下滑 66.7%。中場業務 GGR 為 2.49 億美元,同比下滑 57.1%。這主要是因為受到新冠疫情影響,自 1 月 29 日起內地赴澳門團隊和自由行簽註暫停,同時自 3 月下旬開始澳門限制入境措施繼續收緊。公司實現經調整物業EBITDA 2938.4 萬美元,同比下滑 92.4%。
管理層預計 GGR 恢復至疫情前 45%水平時可以實現盈虧平衡:在 2月份賭場關閉期間,澳門物業每天的現金虧損為 250 萬美元。而在 2月底賭場恢復營業後,每日 GGR 逐步恢復至去年 4 季度 25-30%的水平,在此期間公司每天的現金虧損減少至 80 萬美元。但是隨着 3 月下旬澳門的入境限制措施進一步升級,4 月份賭場每天的現金損失重新提高至 200 萬美元。管理層預計在澳門的入境限制解除後,若每日 GGR恢復至正常 45%的水平時,公司將能實現 EBITDA 的盈虧平衡。
管理層對限制措施解除後需求恢復表示樂觀:5 月 3 日開始澳門入境限制措施出現放寬的跡象:(1)入境珠海和中山的澳門師生不再需要被隔離 14 天;(2)澳門健康碼投入使用,取代目前使用的入境口岸健康申報系統;(3)拱北口岸的通關時間恢復至疫情前時間。管理層認為目前存在許多被壓抑的博彩消費需求,並且認為在入境限制措施逐步解除後,貴賓業務及高端中場業務將恢復得更快。
20-22 年 EBITDA 分別為 35.24 億、98.78 億和 105.83 億港元。考慮到疫情對澳門博彩業的影響是短期的,因此我們基於公司 21 年EBITDA 98.78 億港元計算公司估值。由於目前距離 21 年還有一段時間,我們給予公司 21 年曆史中樞向下 1 倍標準差 EV/EBITDA 11.6x,計算得到公司合理價值為 17.2 港元/股,維持持有評級。
風險提示。內地疫情擴散的風險;外匯管制收緊的風險;賭牌續期的風險。

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