重慶農村商業銀行（03618.HK）：盈利下降，資產質量略存隱憂 ， 維持“買入”評級，目標價5.78港元
機構：天風證券
評級：買入
目標價：5.78 港元
事件：重慶農商行4月26日披露20年一季度業績：1Q20實現營收69.7億元，YoY+4.55%；實現歸母淨利潤30.80億元，YoY-6.90%；年化加權平均ROE為13.77%，同比下降4.61個百分點。截至20年3月末,資產總額1.05萬億元，較年初增長1.90%；不良貸款率1.27%，較年初上升2bp；撥備覆蓋率382.41%，較年初上升2.1個百分點。
點評：
盈利下降，成本收入比上升
營收增速略有回升。1Q20淨利息收入59.3億元，YoY+1.56%；中收7.09億元，YoY+22.57%，中收增長較快；營收69.7億元，YoY+4.55%，營收增速較19年略有回升，主要由中收帶動。
ROE下降。1Q20年化加權平均ROE為13.77%，同比下降4.61個百分點，但較19年（12.75%）略有提升。
成本收入比上升。1Q19取消退休人員大額醫保繳費衝回費用，導致1Q19業務管理費較低，1Q20業務管理費YoY+61.36%。受此影響，1Q20成本收入比為25.12%，同比上升8.85個百分點。受此影響，即使利用撥備反哺（資產減值損失YoY-18.1%），1Q20歸母淨利潤仍YoY-6.90%。
息差承壓
息差下行。1Q20淨息差為2.30%，較19年下降3bp。我們測算Q1生息資產收益率較年初上升3bp至4.5%，計息負債成本較年初下降8bp至2.23%，但計息負債同比幅度（13.1%）高於生息資產同比增幅（約為7%）。隨着新發放貸款利率的持續下行，且負債成本下行空間有限，預計淨息差未來仍將承壓。
資產負債結構優化
存款快速增長。1Q20貸款總額4,504億元，YoY+12.5%，貸款投放進度較快；存款總額7132億元，YoY+17.1%，存款佔計息負債比例較年初上升2.85pct至75.52%。
同業資產壓縮。生息資產中貸款和金融投資佔比較年初均小幅提升，而收益率低的同業佔比繼續減少，較年初降低0.53pct，資產結構進一步優化。
資產質量略存隱憂，資本充足率提升
1Q20不良貸款率1.27%，較年初上升2bp，1Q20不良貸款較年初增加2.75億元至57.35億元。撥備覆蓋率為382.41%，較年初上升2.1個百分點，撥貸比較年初上升12bp至4.87%。
得益於A股上市，1Q20核心一級資本充足率、一級資本充足率、資本充足率繼續提升，較年初分別提升0.27pct、0.27pct、0.25pct。
投資建議：存款增速高，維持“買入”評級
重慶農商行1Q20存款同比增速高達17.1%，ROE下降較多，資產質量略存隱憂，但目前估值僅為0.35XPB（MBQ，截止4月24日）。我們預計重慶農商行20/21年盈利增速為5.2％/7.4％，維持其0.65倍20年PB目標估值，對應5.78港元/股，維持“買入”評級。
風險提示：重慶經濟失速下滑；新冠疫情持續爆發；資產質量大幅惡化。
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