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新高教集團(02001.HK):訴訟風險消除,基本面向好,重申“買入”評級,目標價4.80 港元
格隆匯 04-28 10:12

機構:中泰國際

評級:買入 

目標價:4.80 港元 

z新高教獲償還1.37億人民幣

新高教發佈公告指出,因先前終止收購新疆財經大學商務學院(新疆學校)而向學校原舉辦人發起的民事訴訟,向原舉辦人追討預付款以及相關開支,在2019年12月獲得有利於新高教的勝訴判決後,近日在雙方磋商下,以庭外和解的方式解決。原舉辦人與新高教訂立償還協議,同意向新高教分期償還1.37億人民幣。公司已收到其中1億人民幣,另外3700萬將於支付首期款項後的100日內支付。

消除撥備風險;一次性充實淨利潤

公司於2018年為此次事件計提減值撥備3100萬人民幣。獲得償還款後公司將註銷一部分撥備,將一次性增加非經營性利潤2000萬人民幣。由於當時公司共支付預付款1.48億人民幣,收回償還款1.37億後,公司將為此次事件承擔1100萬人民幣的損失。考慮到可以儘快收回款項以及消除因訴訟帶來的負面影響,我們認為這是對公司有利的結果。同時,收回預付款可以充實現金,加強資產負債表。

基本面趨向正面;提升估值

公司近年專注內生增長,改善債務結構,在FY19的業績中得到證明,淨負債率從FY18E47%下降到FY19E17.7%。這次庭外和解將困擾公司近2年的負面因素消除,我們認為這都是估值修復的催化劑。我們提升公司FY20E淨利潤5.1%至5.3億人民幣,以反映1)一次性計提撥備衝回;2)現金水平上升後帶來的利息收入。現時估值對應FY20E/21E市盈率為8.8倍/8.0倍,我們將目標市盈率提升至12倍,以反以上利好因素。重申“買入”評級,目標價提升至4.80港元。

投資風險

1)招生低於預期;2)民辦教育政策風險。

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