You are browsing the Hong Kong website, Regulated by Hong Kong SFC (CE number: BJA907). Investment is risky and you must be cautious when entering the market.
宏利資管:油價急跌對中國有利
阿思達克 04-22 10:10
宏利投資管理定息產品高級組合經理陳珮珊表示,新型肺炎病毒大流行對中國經濟的影響將集中於外部需求方面。中國出口業所承受的下行壓力,應類似2018年至2019年中美貿易戰期間所經歷的情況。中國亦可能加推貨幣和財政措施,以推動經濟復甦。她又指,油價急跌整體上對中國有利,因中國的石油需求約70%依賴進口,因此石油回落將利好其經常賬和外匯儲備。能源價格下跌亦應可減輕通脹壓力,讓當地有更多放寬貨幣政策的空間。

在落實政府的財政刺激政策方面,中國國有企業及地方政府融資平台應繼續擔當重要角色,但與2015年的上一個周期相比,它們的發揮空間顯著減少,由於地方政府的債務水平普遍上升,預料新注入的流動資金將主要流向優質國有企業和地方政府融資平台。評級較低的國有企業或地方政府融資平台及民營企業或面對更沉重的流動資金壓力,違約率或會因而上升。

房地產業方面,疫情爆發導致營運中斷,亦對發展商造成負面影響,來自房地產銷售的現金流減少,將引發再融資風險。至今政府已放寬當地限售令,並提供充足的在岸流動性,以支持房地產業。惟若房地產銷售仍然呆滯,融資渠道有限及到期債務沉重的小型發展商,將容易受到影響。

她指,自疫情爆發以來,私人發展商的違約數目不斷上升,主要發展商大部份擁有充裕的流動資金,能夠在未來十二個月償還債務,因此佔有優勢可克服目前經濟低迷時期。其研究覆蓋的發展商雖然正恢復銷售和建造活動,但房地產需求仍然疲軟,因此預計有關活動不會出現V形反彈。目前形勢將加快市場整合,可能面對資金緊絀的小型發展商,將會被領先的發展商和國有企業奪去市場份額。

中國銀行業在實質經濟轉弱的情況下,很可能面對資產質素壓力,同時保險和證券公司或會受資本市場表現遜色影響。儘管如此,中國最大型銀行的資產質素及資本流足比率處於多年來高位,因此仍穩佔優勢。此外有關銀行向地方政府融資平台及受產能過剩困擾的行業貸款不多。與其他主要經濟體相比,中國金融體系應相對穩健,尤其是中國金融體系已在2017至2019年期間經歷去槓桿過程,而且內地股市至今抵禦危機的能力勝於其他地區。

Follow us
Find us on Facebook, Twitter , Instagram, and YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
uSMART
Wealth Growth Made Easy
Open Account